Citigroup slightly raises Macau April GGR projection to $2.28B after resilient Easter

Investment bank Citigroup has marginally increased its Macau April 2025 GGR forecast from MOP18.0 billion ($2.24 billion) to MOP18.25 billion ($2.27 billion), considering the resilience data recorded during the Easter period.

According to the latest investment memo, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau note that the adjustment was made in light of the month-to-date strength and considering that Sunday, April 27th, is scheduled as a make-up working day in mainland China ahead of the upcoming Labor Day holidays.

This revised projection represents approximately 77 percent of April 2019 levels and reflects a slight year-on-year decrease of 2 percent.

The modest adjustment suggests cautious optimism about Macau’s gaming market performance as the region continues its recovery trajectory while navigating seasonal patterns and mainland China’s holiday schedule.

It is also worth noting that the Macau government has established a MOP240 billion ($30 billion) GGR target for 2025, requiring an average monthly GGR of approximately MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion). Should April achieve only MOP18.25 billion ($2.28 billion) in GGR, it would continue a pattern of underperformance against official projections, a concern previously highlighted by Macau’s Chief Executive last month.

Citigroup’s investment memo notes that industry sources indicate that Macau’s GGR reached approximately MOP13.0 billion ($1.61 billion) during the first 21 days of April. This represents a daily revenue rate of about MOP650 million ($80.7 million) during April 14th-21st, marking a 6 percent increase compared to the previous week’s daily rate of approximately MOP614 million ($76.3 million).

The analysts attribute this resilient performance primarily to the Easter long weekend, which brought more than 520,000 visitors to Macau, despite the holiday not being observed in Mainland China. Weekend concerts in the gaming hub likely contributed additional support to revenue figures.

According to industry sources, VIP volumes experienced a slight decrease of approximately 2 percent month-on-month, while Mass GGR declined between 2-3 percent compared to the previous month. The report notes that VIP hold rates appeared stronger than the preceding week.