S&P Global Ratings has projected that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could grow by 5 to 6 percent in 2025, despite low VIP.
This growth is largely driven by the mass market segment, which is expected to outperform the overall market, with mass GGR anticipated to be 15 to 20 percent above pre-pandemic levels.
However, despite this optimistic outlook, the VIP segment is expected to remain at low levels unless regulatory changes occur. As a result, total GGR is likely to reach only 80 to 85 percent of 2019 levels.
This projection aligns with another forecast by Goldman Sachs, which predicts 8 percent year-on-year growth in Macau’s GGR for 2025, driven by continued strong travel spending from Chinese tourists. Meanwhile, investment bank CLSA forecasts a more modest 4 percent year-on-year growth for Macau’s GGR.
S&P Global Ratings also expects notable EBITDA growth among Macau’s leading operators, with Melco Resorts (Macau) Ltd. and Sands China set to see the fastest growth, driven by the ramp-up of new or renovated properties.
MGM China has already surpassed its pre-pandemic EBITDA levels. Other operators are forecast to recover to approximately 90 percent of their 2019 EBITDA by 2025, highlighting a significant recovery across the sector.

China’s economic headwinds
While the outlook remains positive, there are potential risks that could impact Macau’s gaming industry. Analysts Flora Chang and Melissa Long point out that economic headwinds, including a weaker Chinese economy, may slow growth, particularly for base mass players who are more sensitive to economic changes such as weak employment or earnings prospects. While premium mass players have shown resilience in the face of asset price declines over the past two years, their spending behavior could change if these trends continue.
The rating agency also notes that the higher operating expenses some operators may incur in attracting more premium mass players could challenge cash flow and hinder improvements in leverage. Additionally, increased capital expenditure (capex) related to development projects may delay the deleveraging process or add incremental leverage to operators’ balance sheets.
Furthermore, the report mentions that US-based operators such as Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, and MGM Resorts International are actively engaged in the competitive landscape, with expectations that they will bid for three full-scale casino licenses in New York. This competition could further intensify market dynamics in Macau, as operators balance investments in their local properties with opportunities abroad.
On a positive note, operators in Macau are well-positioned to meet their liquidity needs for 2025 and 2026 maturities. S&P Global’s report indicates that operators have sufficient financial flexibility to manage their obligations, even as the market faces ongoing challenges.