Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is forecast to rise 16 percent yearly in the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth expected to stay above 10 percent through April 2026, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley.
The upbeat projection follows Morgan Stanley’s recent trip to Macau, which reinforced the firm’s assessment of ‘strong GGR momentum, albeit without margin expansion,’ the bank noted in a research report.
Analysts pointed out that consensus EBITDA estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025 imply only 9 percent year-over-year growth, ‘significantly below the GGR growth expectation of 16 percent, even without assuming any margin expansion.’ Morgan Stanley suggested that this discrepancy ‘could mean upside to current EBITDA expectations.’
‘We are positive on the Macau gaming industry in general, as monthly GGR continues to be above 10 percent year-over-year, ‘ the report indicated.
Among operators, the bank expressed particular confidence in MGM China and Galaxy Entertainment heading into the fourth quarter, citing market share gains as a key driver.
Morgan Stanley highlighted MGM China’s strong positioning, noting the operator ‘reported a 100-basis-point GGR share gain in October versus the third quarter. ‘ The analysts added that MGM has seen year-over-year growth of more than 10 percent in its highest-end customer segment, supported by the recently opened Alpha Gaming Club.
For Galaxy Entertainment, the bank expects EBITDA to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by lower operating expenses following one-off marketing costs in the third quarter tied to Capella pre-opening activities.
Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai offered a more cautious view despite the generally optimistic outlook. Speaking after delivering the 2026 Policy Address, Sam declined to provide a GGR forecast for next year, emphasizing that the industry continues to face significant internal and external uncertainties.
He noted that although the sector has shown signs of phased recovery, its performance remains highly sensitive to external conditions. Sam recalled that GGR underperformed expectations in the early months of 2025 due to domestic and global factors.
However, he said that since April, steadying international economic conditions and rising visitor arrivals have helped stabilize the sector. He also pointed to recent highs in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets, which have created a “wealth effect” and boosted mass-market gaming consumption in recent months.
