Macau’s top official Sam Hou Fai warned that gross gaming revenue (GGR) remains below expectations and is unlikely to meet targets by the end of the year, citing the sector’s vulnerability to external economic conditions.
“Until now, GGR has not matched our expectations, and we don’t believe it will do so by November or December”, the city’s Chief Executive said in a press conference following his 2026 Policy address on Tuesday.
“The gaming sector is very vulnerable to external circumstances, and it is very hard to predict the changes in international factors and conditions,” noted the top official.
Sam Hou Fai noted that the government has withheld a forecast for next year’s GGR in its 2026 Policy Address, citing the industry’s sensitivity to shifting economic conditions.
The executive explained that gaming revenues from last November to this March had all fallen short of expectations. “The gaming sector is highly sensitive to changes in the broader environment,” he said, noting that both domestic and international factors directly affect the city’s flagship industry.
Hou Fai added that after April this year, the economic climate at home and abroad began to stabilize, helping tourism recover. Visitor arrivals in the first three quarters rose 14.5 percent year-on-year to more than 29 million, with international tourists contributing to the growth.
He pointed to Hong Kong and mainland China’s stock markets, which have reached their highest levels in seven to eight years, creating a “wealth effect” that has boosted the number of premium-mass patrons. But he cautioned that the upward trend may not continue next year.
“The projections for the second half of this year and next year will be announced by the Secretary for Economy and Finance,” Hou Fai said, stressing that the government must remain cautious as the current environment is shifting rapidly and economic uncertainties are growing.
Macau’s casino industry, the city’s flagship sector, has faced fluctuating fortunes in 2025. Hou Fai noted that after April, the stabilization of the international economy briefly lifted tourism and gaming revenues, but uncertainty has returned.
The city relies heavily on tourism from mainland China and Hong Kong, and its recovery from pandemic-era lows has been uneven, with officials balancing optimism over regional growth against concerns about global economic headwinds.
The city is on track to attract between 38 million and 39 million visitors in 2025, a number on par with pre-pandemic times, but that has not translated into similar gaming revenue.
For the first ten months of 2025, Macau’s cumulative GGR stood at MOP205.43 billion ($25.64 billion), representing an 8 percent increase year-on-year. However, the figure remains 16.7 percent below the same period in 2019, when GGR totaled MOP246.74 billion ($30.8 billion).
In June, the Macau government reduced its 2025 GGR forecast by around 5 percent, to MOP228 billion ($28.4 million), from a previous projection of MOP240 billion (29.9 billion).
With reports suggesting weaker GGR this year, Sam Hou Fai stressed the unpredictability of external factors such as global tourism flows.
“This year many people say ASEAN economies have reached a new height, with Hong Kong’s stock market also growing a lot. But we can’t guarantee it will be so next year,” he cautioned.
