Moody’s Ratings expects SJM Holdings to post adjusted EBITDA of HK$4.1 billion ($523.6M) in 2026, rising to HK$4.5 billion ($574.7M) in 2027, up from HK$3.4 billion ($434.2M) in 2025, the rating agency said on Friday.
The improvement is primarily attributable to earnings from Casino L’Arc, which SJM acquired in December 2025, as well as gradual earnings accretion from tables reallocated from former satellite casinos.
The agency noted that the forecasts also account for ‘continued subdued earnings performance at GLP and Grand Lisboa, which is generally in line with its Q1 2026 performance.’
Alongside the forecast, Moody’s downgraded SJM’s corporate family rating (CFR) to B1 from Ba3, and lowered to B2 from B1 the backed senior unsecured rating on bonds issued by Champion Path Holdings Limited and SJM International Limited, both guaranteed by SJM. The outlook was revised to stable from negative.
‘The downgrade reflects our anticipation that SJM’s earnings growth will only be gradual over the next 12 to 18 months. Consequently, while we expect its financial leverage to improve from a very high level in 2025, it will likely remain elevated,’ said Stephanie Lau, a Moody’s Ratings Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.
Deleveraging path supported by earnings growth
The agency projects SJM’s adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio to improve to around 7.3 times in 2026 from 9.0 times in 2025, and to further decline to approximately 6.3 times in 2027. The improvement is driven primarily by earnings growth and a moderate reduction in debt. Moody’s expects adjusted debt to remain largely stable in 2026 before declining moderately in 2027.
According to Moody’s, the B1 CFR reflects SJM’s long-standing presence in Macao’s gaming market and the city’s favorable long-term growth outlook, while also capturing its geographic concentration, intense competition, and high financial leverage.
SJM’s liquidity position remains good, with cash holdings of HK$2.0 billion ($255.4 million), excluding restricted cash, and an available revolving credit facility. Moody’s said these resources will be more than sufficient to cover the operator’s committed capital spending and maturing debt over the next 12 to 18 months.
