Macau’s casino industry is expected to post a 7 percent year-on-year increase in sector EBITDA for the third quarter of 2025, driven by resilient mass-market demand despite temporary disruptions caused by a September typhoon, according to Citigroup’s latest research report.
Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau estimate industry EBITDA will reach about $2.07 billion, with total gaming revenue (GGR) climbing 12.5 percent year-on-year to MOP62.57 billion ($7.78 billion), the highest quarterly level since the territory reopened in January 2023.
The solid recovery was underpinned by record visitor arrivals in August and steady mass-market play, though margins were ‘shaved by about 80 basis points’ due to lost operating hours and additional wage expenses during the 33-hour storm-related shutdown.
Wynn and Sands emerge as key market-share gainers
Citigroup projects Wynn Macau and Sands China as the top quarter-on-quarter market-share gainers among the six concessionaires. Wynn’s share is expected to rise from 11.9 percent in 2Q25 to 13.7 percent in 3Q25, benefiting from ‘normalization in mass hold rates’ and a favorable VIP win rate. That momentum helped drive Wynn Macau’s property EBITDA up 17 percent year-on-year to about $306 million, marking the strongest growth in the sector.
Sands China’s market share is projected to improve from 22.8 percent to 23.7 percent, reflecting early benefits from its new player reinvestment strategy. However, the company’s quarterly EBITDA growth remains modest at 1 percent, constrained by an unfavorable VIP hold environment.
By contrast, MGM China and Melco Resorts & Entertainment likely ceded market share, down one and 0.9 percentage points respectively, to 15.6 percent and 14.6 percent. Still, MGM’s property EBITDA is forecast to climb 13 percent year-on-year to about $290 million, maintaining a healthy 27 percent margin consistent with management guidance.
Sector trading below historical average
Citigroup noted that Macau’s gaming sector is currently trading at roughly 8.5 times FY2026 EBITDA, nearly 1.5 standard deviations below its long-term mean of 11.6 times. The bank maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on most operators, naming Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China as top picks for their diversified mass-market exposure and balance sheet strength.
Wynn Macau was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, with analysts citing upcoming growth catalysts such as the Wynn Palace Chairman’s Club expansion scheduled for early 2026.
The report also placed Wynn Macau and MGM China on a 30-day ‘upside catalyst watch’, expecting both to post the strongest year-on-year EBITDA gains when they report earnings later this month and in early November.
