The impact of Sands China’s high-profile NBA China Games 2025 on its market share is expected to become a key discussion point for investors as Macau’s gaming sector heads into the upcoming earnings season, according to a new investment memo from CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan.
CLSA noted that while Sands China is unlikely to comment directly on its current-quarter performance, the brand visibility and visitor inflow generated by hosting the NBA event at The Venetian Macao in early October could influence sentiment and competitive positioning within the sector.
The analysts added that the broader market would be watching whether the event-driven footfall can translate into stronger gaming revenue in the weeks following the tournament, similar to the post-holiday momentum seen during Golden Week and the Chinese New Year earlier this year.
The development comes as Sands China continues efforts to regain ground after acknowledging underperformance in the second quarter. In July, Las Vegas Sands Chairman and CEO Rob Goldstein admitted the company “was not aggressive enough” in customer reinvestment and launched a more assertive program from late April. He also conceded that the firm “underperformed” in the Macau market during 2Q25, with EBITDA of $566 million falling short of the company’s annual target of $2.7 billion for Sands China.
‘For the results, with Sands China catching up in players’ reinvestments, how rebates and reinvestments (a contra revenue account) trend into 3Q25 will likely also be a focus,’ the memo noted.
Sector growth and 3Q25 preview
CLSA forecasts Macau’s gaming sector EBITDA to rise 10 percent year-on-year to $2.06 billion in the third quarter, supported by a 12.5 percent increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP62.6 billion. The brokerage highlighted that strong visitation in July and August and a 2.3 percentage-point increase in five-star hotel occupancy contributed to the improvement.
However, the report cautioned that typhoon-related disruptions — including a 33-hour casino shutdown during Typhoon Ragasa — likely weighed on margins. CLSA projects a 0.5 percentage-point decline in EBITDA margin quarter-on-quarter, partly due to elevated payroll costs and intensified marketing expenses.
‘The tail-end strength of GGR post-Golden Week and players’ reinvestments will be in focus,’ the analysts wrote. CLSA expects overall 3Q25 EBITDA to improve 2 percent from the prior quarter, with sector GGR maintaining momentum into October if holiday demand holds.
Outlook for 2026–2027
Over the medium term, CLSA raised its sector-wide GGR forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 1.3 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, citing continued RMB appreciation and improving industrial profitability indicators in mainland China. The brokerage now expects Macau’s annual GGR to reach MOP273 billion ($33.9 billion) by 2027 — about 93 percent of the 2019 level.
EBITDA growth across concessionaires is projected to expand 7 percent year-on-year in 2025 and 8 percent in 2026, driven by a sustained mass-market recovery and stronger non-gaming revenues. CLSA maintains “Outperform” ratings on all six major operators, with Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China identified as top picks.
Sands China’s market share is estimated to recover to around 23.3 percent in 3Q25, supported by marketing catch-up efforts and higher reinvestment levels. CLSA expects its dividend yield to climb to as much as 7.4 percent by 2027, though near-term margins may remain under pressure.
