The Macau Economics Association (MEA) projects that Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) will reach about MOP435 billion ($54.4 billion) in 2026, representing year-on-year real growth of between 2 percent and 5 percent, according to estimates released at a local economic forum on Saturday.
The association said Macau’s GDP next year is expected to recover to around 93 percent of its 2019 pre-pandemic level, pointing to a broadly stable macroeconomic outlook. However, it stressed that continued policy focus will be required to advance structural reforms and support sustainable growth.
The projection broadly aligns with previous forecasts by international rating agency Fitch. Earlier this week, Fitch projected that Macau’s economic growth would be about 4 percent in 2026, marking a deceleration from 2025. Fitch said the low single-digit growth rate reflects weakening conditions in mainland China, which are increasingly weighing on the spending power of visiting tourists.
The projections were unveiled at the “Macau Economic Forum 2025,” organized by the MEA, which focused on aligning China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30) with Macau’s third five-year development plan. The association described the outlook as one of cautious optimism amid persistent global uncertainties.
Presenting an economic outlook titled ‘Macau’s Economic Situation and Prospects 2026’, MEA director and Macau lawmaker Joey Lao said the global environment remains complex and volatile, with geopolitical tensions and weak global growth momentum continuing to pose challenges. He noted that external uncertainties are likely to persist, making the international environment more demanding in the year ahead.
Despite these headwinds, Lao said Macau’s economy is showing signs of steady improvement. He cautioned, however, that long-standing structural issues remain difficult to resolve, including unbalanced and insufficient development and the limited effectiveness of diversification efforts.
