Macau’s economic growth is expected to decelerate to 4 percent in 2026 as weakening conditions in mainland China increasingly weigh on the spending power of visiting tourists, according to a new forecast released by Fitch Ratings on Tuesday.
The rating agency also lowered its projection for 2025, now expecting Macau’s GDP to grow 4.6 percent instead of the 6.9 percent estimated in March.
Fitch said softer mainland demand will likely slow the pace of Macau’s post-pandemic recovery, even as gaming tourism continues to be the primary driver of economic expansion. The city’s GDP rose 8.8 percent in 2024, supported largely by a 21.8 percent increase in casino-related spending by visitors.
The agency expects Macau’s casinos to end 2025 with annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching about 88 percent of 2019 levels. According to official data, cumulative GGR for the first 11 months of 2025 stood at MOP226.52 billion ($28.32 billion), up 8.6 percent year-on-year—placing the city within reach of the government’s MOP228 billion ($28.5 billion) full-year target with one month remaining.
Despite a more cautious consumer outlook, Fitch said part of the impact will be offset by ‘favourable visa policies, ongoing non-gaming investments, and improvements in tourism infrastructure.’ The agency also noted that Macau’s 2026 Policy Address emphasises economic diversification and deeper cooperation with Hengqin to support long-term development.
Fitch added that Macau is expected to continue posting a fiscal surplus in 2026, supported by strong gaming tax receipts, which accounted for 83.3 percent of public revenue in the first 10 months of 2024. The city’s financial reserves reached MOP658.7 billion ($81.37 billion) at the end of September, enough to cover roughly six years of government expenditure.
