Macau’s gaming industry is expected to record approximately 8 percent year-on-year growth in EBITDA in the first quarter of 2026, as strong gross gaming revenue (GGR) gains are partially offset by a less favorable VIP-to-mass market mix, according to a report by Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
Citigroup indicates that Macau generated total GGR of MOP65.87 billion ($8.17 billion) in 1Q26, up 14 percent year-on-year, marking the strongest quarter on a daily run-rate basis since reopening. However, the report notes that EBITDA growth is lagging GGR expansion due to margin pressure linked to VIP performance and hold rates.
‘Gaming performance can vary between periods due to normal fluctuations in hold percentage and customer mix,’ Choi and Chau wrote, adding that ‘some casinos suffered from less favorable VIP hold, which weighed on margins.’
Despite this, Citigroup expects industry EBITDA margins to remain relatively stable at around 27 percent, suggesting that operator reinvestment levels remain ‘reasonable’ and overall profitability resilient.
The investment memo also highlights that player demand appears largely unaffected by broader geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. ‘The positive GGR and EBITDA growth during the quarter should remind investors that players’ appetite for gaming seems little affected by ongoing geopolitical tensions,’ the analysts said.
Market share shifts favor Melco, Wynn
In terms of market share, Citigroup expects Melco Resorts & Entertainment and Wynn Macau to deliver the strongest quarter-on-quarter gains among operators.
Melco is projected to increase its market share to 15.7 percent in 1Q26 from 14.2 percent in the previous quarter, supported by entertainment-driven visitation, including events at Studio City. Wynn Macau is expected to rise to 13.4 percent from 12.2 percent, with Citigroup noting that performance could have been stronger under more normalized VIP hold conditions.
Sands China is also seen gaining share, rising by 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 25.5 percent, while Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China and SJM Holdings are expected to post sequential declines.
Among operators, Citigroup expects Sands China to deliver the strongest EBITDA growth, rising around 20 percent year-on-year to $643 million, supported by market share gains and a relatively low comparison base, as The Londoner Macao was not fully ramped up in the prior-year period.
By contrast, Citigroup expects SJM Holdings to be the weakest performer among the six operators, with EBITDA projected to decline around 6 percent year-on-year.
