The Macau gaming industry has registered a weak start in July, performing below historical seasonality, according to investment banks UBS and Citigroup.
In their latest investment memo, UBS reports that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) averaged MOP550 million ($68.4 million) per day in the first seven days of July, down 7 percent month-over-month and below historical seasonality. During the 2015-2019 period, the average month-over-month increase in July was about 6 percent.
UBS analysts note that, assuming mass GGR accounts for 85 to 90 percent of total GGR, the daily run rate for mass GGR is tracking at about 95 to 100 percent of 2019 levels.
The weaker GGR trend ‘might be dragged by the football tournament in Europe, with a final match scheduled to take place on 14 July, as well as more stringent enforcement against illicit money exchange activities.’
‘However, it remains hard to quantify the revenue impact to gaming operators at this point.” UBS notes.
Previously reported by AGB, Macau’s Judiciary Police apprehended 1,924 money changers between January and May this year, who now face bans from entering Macau.
Of these, 927 individuals were reported to the city’s gaming regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), for inclusion on the casino entry ban list.
This operation is part of a nationwide crackdown on illicit money exchanges.

Macau July GGR to reach MOP19B
In another investment memo, Citigroup also concludes that Macau’s gaming revenue has been weak, with the first seven days of July GGR 12 percent lower than that of the final week of June, at about MOP628 million per day ($78.1 million).
Even so, analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung project that Macau’s GGR for July could reach MOP19 billion ($2.36 billion), which represents 78 percent of the July 2019 level.
Citigroup notes that the weak start of July is not surprising, as they anticipated that Macau is still in the seasonal trough and that Macau’s daily run-rate might only recover around mid-July.
Based on industry sources, Macau’s VIP volumes were 3-4 percent lower this month compared to June, while mass volumes were 4-5 percent lower month-over-month.