CreditSights, a division within Fitch Group, views Macau’s newly revised 2025 gross gaming revenue target as more conservative and in-line with the sector’s performance year-to-date, following the government’s decision to lower its forecast by 5 percent.
The Macau government announced on June 3rd that it is proposing to revise its gross gaming revenue (GGR) target for 2025 to MOP228 billion ($28.4 billion) from MOP240 billion ($30 billion), after assessing current economic conditions and the gaming industry’s operating conditions this year.
CreditSights noted that this revision does not come as ‘a complete surprise’, given that monthly GGR data prints year-to-date had been falling short of the MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion) level required to attain the original MOP240 billion target. For the first five months of 2025, the average monthly GGR was approximately MOP19.5 billion ($2.4 billion).
The revised MOP228 billion target still represents a 0.5 percent yearly increase compared to 2024’s actual GGR of MOP226.8 billion ($28.3 billion). The new target requires an average monthly GGR of MOP19 billion ($2.4 billion) to achieve.
According to CreditSights, while Macau has seen healthy visitations to start the year, GGR has come in softer than originally anticipated. The firm suspects this could reflect a higher mix of base mass visitors versus premium mass and VIP segments, as well as non-gaming traffic.
The sector’s GGR performance to date has largely been supported by robust visitation figures that have helped offset constrained gaming spending by casino goers. For the first four months of 2025, total visitor arrivals were up 13 percent year-over-year, which mitigated an 11 percent year-over-year decline in GGR per visitor, allowing overall GGR to grow 0.8 percent year-over-year.
Macau’s GGR for May provided another positive beat, growing 5 percent yearly versus market expectations of 2 percent growth, reaching 82 percent of pre-pandemic levels. The strong performance was attributed to robust visitations during the Labour Day Golden Week holiday and several mega concerts that occurred during the month.
On a year-to-date basis through May, GGR totaled MOP97.7 billion ($12 billion), representing 1.7 percent yearly growth or 78 percent of 2019 levels.
However, CreditSights warns that the region may still run the risk of missing the revised GGR target should tourist arrivals show signs of faltering or softening in the coming months.
