Fitch Ratings has flagged ‘heightened uncertainty around SJM’s deleveraging trajectory’ after assigning a ‘BB-’ rating to SJM Holdings Limited’s proposed senior unsecured notes, citing weak performance at the Grand Lisboa Palace resort and continued market share dilution following the closure and restructuring of satellite casinos.
Hong Kong-listed SJM Holdings Limited is the holding company of SJM Resorts, one of six casino operators in Macau. The group owns and operates five casinos in the city, including Grand Lisboa Palace, Grand Lisboa, Casino Lisboa, Casino Oceanus, and Casino L’Arc.
In a report issued on Monday, Fitch said its ‘Negative’ outlook is driven by concerns over the pace and reliability of SJM’s balance-sheet improvement, even though leverage metrics are expected to recover to within the ‘BB-’ threshold by 2027. The proposed notes will be issued by SJM International Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of SJM Holdings, and will be unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by the parent company.
Fitch expects SJM’s EBITDA leverage to rise to above 8 times in 2025, from 7.0 times in 2024, before easing to around 5 times by 2027 under its base-case scenario. Although the agency sees the group remaining on a deleveraging path over the medium term, it cautioned that uncertainty remains around the ramp-up of Grand Lisboa Palace and the operational effects of satellite casino restructuring. Any further deterioration in operating performance could lead to negative rating action, Fitch said.
The agency also pointed to continued pressure from underperformance at Grand Lisboa Palace. Non-rolling gross gaming revenue growth at the property slowed to 1 percent quarter-on-quarter and 12 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. Fitch noted that initiatives aimed at strengthening the resort’s mass-market appeal — including improved connectivity and expanded food, beverage, retail, and event offerings — have yet to translate into a sustained recovery in market share.
Market share erosion remains another key challenge. SJM’s total gross gaming revenue declined 5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, trailing the broader industry’s 12.5 percent growth. This resulted in the group’s market share slipping to 11.8 percent, driven by weaker results at self-owned casinos and a sharp contraction in satellite operations.
Fitch said the credit impact of satellite casino closures will largely depend on SJM’s ability to recapture displaced play through the reallocation of gaming tables to its self-owned properties, which the agency expects to generate higher margins than the previous satellite model.
