Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to grow by 5–6 percent in 2026, supported by continued strength in the mass and slot segments, according to a research note from JP Morgan.
The investment bank said industry profit growth is likely to slightly outpace top-line expansion next year, signalling an improvement in earnings flow-through following a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2025.
The outlook was outlined by JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian, who said they continue to model moderate but sustainable growth for Macau’s gaming market after a solid rebound this year. Mass and slot GGR are forecast to rise by 7–8 percent in 2026, while VIP revenue is expected to decline by around 5 percent, reflecting a high comparison base after an unexpectedly strong showing in 2025.
‘More importantly, we forecast the industry profit growth (+6–7 percent) to finally — albeit modestly — outpace top-line growth (+5–6 percent) in 2026E,’ the analysts wrote, adding that this would help narrow the profit flow-through gap seen in 2025, when EBITDA growth lagged overall GGR expansion.
JP Morgan noted that Macau’s gaming sector delivered a stronger-than-anticipated performance in 2025, with full-year GGR rising 9 percent to MOP247.4 billion ($30.9 billion), nearly double the bank’s initial forecast of 5 percent growth. Revenue momentum strengthened as the year progressed, culminating in the strongest quarterly performance in six years during the fourth quarter, despite a modest miss in December against elevated market expectations.
December GGR rose 15 year-on-year to MOP20.9 billion ($2.61 billion), reaching around 91 percent of pre-pandemic levels. While the result came in below the latest consensus forecast, the bank attributed the shortfall to higher expectations rather than any weakening in underlying demand. Mass-market revenue continued to outperform, remaining well above pre-COVID levels, while VIP play recovered to more than 30 percent of its pre-pandemic base.
The analysts said profit momentum should remain intact in 2026 as cost structures stabilise and the mass segment supports margins. ‘In other words, even with likely moderating GGR, we see profit momentum sustaining, if not accelerating, in 2026E,’ the note said.
