Macau’s gaming revenue in October soared 15.9 percent year-on-year to MOP24.09 billion ($3 billion), the highest monthly gross gaming revenue (GGR) since 2019, driven by robust high-end play that offset softer Golden Week performance, according to Seaport Research Partners.
The result sharply beat market expectations of an 11.7 percent rise and marked 91 percent of pre-pandemic levels for the same month in 2019.
Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky of Seaport said October’s performance ‘obliterated expectations’ as premium mass and VIP segments outperformed. ‘While Golden Week was softer than anticipated, high-end play for the rest of the month more than compensated,’ he noted. The strong result was also supported by favorable VIP hold rates and sustained liquidity in the system.
Macau’s gaming industry continues to benefit from a shift toward premium mass players and affluent tourists from mainland China, particularly from Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang. Although base mass recovery remains uneven, Umansky pointed out that the mid-tier segment has shown improvement, suggesting broader stabilization across visitor spending patterns.
Forecasts point to continued growth
Seaport projects that November GGR will increase by 11.5 percent year-on-year, reflecting a typical month-on-month slowdown after October’s peak but maintaining double-digit annual growth. The firm expects fourth-quarter growth of 14.4 percent and forecasts Macau’s overall GGR to grow 9.2 percent in 2025 (in USD terms), with continued gains of around 7 percent annually in 2026 and 2027.
According to Umansky, ‘Macau remains a secular growth story driven by the rising wealth effect in China, a high propensity to gamble, and growing travel expenditure.’ He added that easing visa policies and sustained liquidity will remain key factors supporting gaming demand, especially for the high-end segment.
Market too pessimistic on valuations
Despite the strong operating recovery, Seaport believes investor sentiment toward Macau gaming stocks remains excessively cautious. ‘Current valuations are still too low given the sector’s performance,’ Umansky said, emphasizing that the market is overly pessimistic about structural risks.
The Macau gaming sector — encompassing six major operators — trades at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.3 times, representing a 22 percent discount to the 2018–2019 pre-COVID average of 11.9 times. The sector has hovered below 10 times for the past year, which Seaport views as an unwarranted discount.
‘At current valuation levels, investors are being well compensated to take on China-related risk,’ Umansky stated, highlighting that the sector’s fundamentals have improved meaningfully since mid-year. Seaport’s top picks include Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, Melco Resorts, and Las Vegas Sands, which the firm expects to benefit most from the ongoing premium segment expansion.
High-end play to remain key driver
Seaport noted that Macau’s October rebound was mainly fueled by affluent customers, underscoring the dominance of the premium mass and VIP markets. The brokerage estimates that mass GGR now exceeds 118 percent of 2019 levels, while the VIP segment has recovered to about 30 percent. Within the mass segment, premium play is estimated to be around 45 percent above 2019, compared with base mass still roughly 5 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
As Macau’s casinos continue to refine digital table operations and expand side-betting options, Umansky expects profitability to rise further. He notes that the city’s gaming recovery has been ‘solidified by structural improvements,’ with potential upside from a stronger overnight visitor base in 2026.
