Macau gaming operator MGM China‘s market share dropped during the third quarter of 2024, with the company’s performance falling short of expectations, according to Deutsche Bank.
As of August, MGM’s market share in Macao was approximately 14.7 percent, with July performing better than August, though both months still came in below the second quarter’s 15.9 percent share.
In the latest report, Deutsche Bank analysts predict that if MGM’s September market share remains consistent with the quarter-to-date average of 14.7 percent, the company’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will likely be around $1.02 billion, which is $107 million short of the Consensus Metrix estimate of $1.12 billion.
The report states, ‘Our updated model assumes market share in September improves upon QTD trends, though we still anticipate a GGR shortfall, relative to Consensus, of $70 million.’
While the analysts expect some improvement in September, they remain cautious about MGM Macau’s overall performance. The report forecasts MGM’s 3Q24 Macau EBITDAR, post-branding fees, to be approximately $273 million, slightly below the Consensus estimates.
From a broader perspective, the investment bank revised its 2024 consolidated property EBITDAR forecasts for MGM Resorts, the parent company of MGM China, lowering it by 3.3 percent.
The outlook for MGM’s Macau operations was revised down by 8.5 percent, while the Las Vegas and regional segments saw smaller adjustments.
Looking ahead to 2025, the forecast for Macau was again reduced, this time by 5.1 percent, while the 2026 consolidated property EBITDAR forecast was adjusted downward by 1.2 percent to $4.9 billion.
