Macau’s gaming sector is set for a strong end of the year, with analysts pointing to November’s solid performance as a clear indicator that December’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is positioned for a robust start.
According to CLSA, November GGR rose 14.4 percent year on year to MOP21.1 billion ($2.64 billion), outperforming both its forecast and Bloomberg consensus by 3–4 percent. The firm noted that the month implied an average daily GGR run rate of MOP703 million ($87.9 million), or MOP784 million ($98 million) from November 24th to 30th, reflecting a stronger-than-usual finish to what is typically a softer period.
CLSA highlighted that the late-month acceleration was likely supported by the conclusion of the 2025 National Games, held from November 9th to 21st across Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau. The brokerage said the performance ‘foreshadows a strong start to Macau’s GGR in December 2025,’ citing healthier traffic and resilient mass-market demand.
Looking ahead, CLSA forecasts December GGR to grow 15 percent year on year to MOP20.9 billion ($2.61 billion), equivalent to an average daily rate of MOP674 million ($84.3 million). The projection reflects a low comparison base from December 2024, when about two weeks of traffic-control measures constrained visitation. ‘December is well-positioned for a strong start,’ the analysts wrote, adding that upside risk remains given the recent momentum.
Year to date, Macau’s gaming revenue has climbed 8.6 percent to MOP226.5 billion ($28.3 billion), though it is still 16 percent below the same period in 2019. Even so, November’s result marks the second straight month of exceeded expectations, reinforcing an improving trajectory heading into the peak holiday season.
The sector’s rebound has been led by the mass segment, which industry analysts estimate has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. J.P. Morgan noted that mass-market GGR has risen to more than 125 percent of 2019 levels, while VIP revenue—despite growing at a faster rate—remains at roughly one-third of pre-COVID volumes. The bank added that November’s print represents Macau’s strongest recovery level since the pandemic, reaching 92 percent of 2019 GGR.
J.P. Morgan also said December could ‘finish 2025 with a bang,’ projecting the possibility of more than 20 percent year-on-year growth if current trends continue. A strong December would position fourth-quarter GGR to grow 15–16 percent year on year, which the bank said would represent ‘the best quarter in six years.’
Market sentiment is expected to benefit from the accelerating revenue trend, supported by improving earnings visibility and broader investor optimism. CLSA named Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China as its top sector picks, citing solid fundamentals and strong exposure to premium-mass demand.
