Citigroup has issued a conservative forecast for Macau’s December 2024 gross gaming revenue (GGR), projecting a flat year-on-year performance at MOP18.5 billion ($2.3 billion).
This forecast, which represents around 81 percent of December 2019 levels, reflects an anticipated slowdown in gaming volumes during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Macau for the celebration of the 25th Anniversary of Macau’s Handover to China on December 20th, along with other Mainland Chinese government officials.
Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau expect that the visit, coupled with public holidays, will lead to a temporary dip in gaming activity as the focus shifts to state-led celebrations. While the holiday season typically brings an increase in tourist arrivals, this year’s high-profile political event is expected to cause a brief disruption in Macau’s usual gaming momentum.
This projection contrasts with that of Macau’s Chief Executive, Ho Iat Seng, who has a more optimistic view of the territory’s overall performance. In his recent policy address, Ho stated that tourist arrivals to Macau could reach 34 million in 2024, marking a significant milestone. He also expressed confidence that Macau’s GGR for 2024 could reach MOP228 billion ($28.35 billion), which implies a potential 5 percent year-on-year increase for December, bringing the GGR to MOP19.4 billion ($2.41 billion).
On a separate note, Seaport adopts a more optimistic tone, forecasting a 5.2 percent year-on-year increase in December 2024 GGR, with a 5.9 percent month-on-month rise. However, the month is still expected to be weaker than usual due to Xi Jinping’s visit, which is likely to temporarily reduce gaming activity during that week.
For the fourth quarter, Seaport projects total GGR to reach MOP58.76 billion ($7.35 billion), reflecting an 8.6 percent year-on-year increase and a 5.7 percent quarter-on-quarter rise in MOP terms. While this growth is more modest compared to the 13.9 percent year-on-year increase seen in 3Q24, Seaport remains confident in the continued growth of the gaming industry throughout the next year.
November GGR
November 2024 GGR came in at MOP18.44 billion ($2.31 billion), marking a 15 percent year-on-year increase and reaching 81 percent of November 2019 levels. This exceeded both Citigroup’s estimate of MOP18 billion ($2.24 billion) and the consensus estimate of MOP18.1 billion ($2.25 billion).
Citigroup notes that the November performance was bolstered by an improved daily run rate, especially in the last two weeks of the month. The final 13 days of November saw a daily GGR run rate of approximately MOP641 million ($79.7 million), about 2 percent higher than the previous week’s run rate of MOP629 million ($78.2 million).
This suggests that, despite some global economic headwinds, Macau’s gaming sector is demonstrating resilience and continues to attract both visitors and players.
