Chinese visitors accounted for more than one-third of the increase in tourist arrivals across selected ASEAN+3 destinations in the first quarter of 2026, marking a shift from their previously slow return to regional markets.
Overall arrivals rose by 7.5 percent during the quarter, with the strongest growth recorded in Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
The findings were published on July 27th in AMRO’s quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook. The 7.5 percent increase refers specifically to the first quarter, while an accompanying chart includes data through April.
The tourism data covered Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
‘Tourism provided further support to export growth, led by the return of Chinese travelers,’ the report said. Visitors from Japan, South Korea, ASEAN markets and other source countries also contributed to the overall increase.
The latest figures indicate a change from the uneven tourism recovery identified by the research office in previous years. In its April 2024 regional outlook, AMRO said Chinese outbound tourism had ‘significantly lagged’, with arrivals from China recovering to only about 25 percent of their pre-pandemic level as of September 2023.
An earlier study released in 2023 also found that ASEAN economies were recovering faster than China, Japan and South Korea following the removal of regional travel restrictions.
At the time, AMRO expected regional tourism to recover further as international flights resumed, travel patterns normalized and visa requirements for Chinese visitors were eased across several destinations.
However, the latest recovery remained uneven across source markets. AMRO said European arrivals weakened after the Middle East conflict escalated at the end of February, as airspace closures and higher airfares disrupted long-haul connectivity.
Travelers from other markets continued to support overall growth despite the decline in European traffic.
Meanwhile, AMRO raised its 2026 growth forecasts for several regional economies. Singapore’s projection increased to 4.8 percent from 3.4 percent, while South Korea’s rose to 3.1 percent from 2.4 percent. Vietnam was upgraded to 7.5 percent from 7.2 percent, while Malaysia and Thailand were each raised by 0.3 percentage points, to 4.9 percent and 2.4 percent. The overall ASEAN+3 forecast was lifted to 4.1 percent from 4 percent. AMRO attributed the stronger outlook to robust artificial intelligence-related demand and a less severe global commodity price path than assumed in June.
