Macau’s gaming industry is poised for a strong start to the new year, with Citigroup projecting January 2025 GGR at MOP19 billion ($2.38 billion), averaging MOP613 million ($76.7 million) per day. This represents 76 percent of January 2019 levels.

According to a Citigroup investment memo, released after the Macau December GGR data, analyst George Choi notes that the growth outlook for January and February combined is even more encouraging, with a forecast for a 6 percent year-over-year increase. Citigroup emphasizes that the estimate ‘neutralizes the impact of the timing of Chinese New Year,’ with the Golden Week falling later this year, from January 28th to February 4th.

The projection for January also accounts for the slower Chinese New Year travel period, which typically occurs about two weeks before the Chinese New Year Golden Week.

Citigroup explained: ‘The implied 2 percent year-over-year decline in January reflects the timing of the Spring Festival travel rush, a traditionally quieter period for Macau.’

Taking a broader perspective, Citigroup anticipates combined January-February GGR to reach MOP40 billion ($5.01 billion), underscoring resilience despite timing challenges: ‘We estimate a 6 percent year-over-year growth for January and February 2025 combined, which aligns with Macau’s ongoing recovery trajectory.’

December 2024 performance

Macau’s December 2024 GGR reached MOP18.2 billion ($2.28 billion), averaging approximately MOP587 million ($73.5 million) per day—about 80 percent of December 2019 levels.

Although this figure fell slightly below the consensus forecast of MOP18.9 billion, Citigroup highlighted a strong finish to the month. The daily run rate for the final 16 days of December improved to MOP603 million ($75.5 million), around 4 percent higher than the week of December 9th, when it stood at MOP579 million ($72.5 million).

This late-month boost coincided with President Xi Jinping’s three-day visit to Macau for the 25th anniversary of the Handover. Citigroup suggested that the disruption caused by the top political official’s visit impacted gaming activities.

‘Macau had a strong finish in late December,’ indicating that after Xi’s departure, the city returned to recording positive figures in terms of GGR.

For the full year, Macau’s 2024 GGR totaled MOP226.8 billion ($28.39 billion), representing a 78 percent recovery compared to MOP292.5 billion in 2019.

Tourism during the Christmas season offered additional signs of recovery. Total visitation reached 728,000 between December 20th and 26th, with the Macau Public Security Police reporting a daily high of 112,025 visitors on December 25th—an 8 percent year-over-year increase.

Although Christmas is not a public holiday in mainland China, and December 24th and 25th are still working days, the brokerage noted that ‘hotel occupancy during the Christmas period stood at 90.8 percent, indicating robust demand from tourists.’