Visitor arrivals to Macau during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday fell short of the Macao Government Tourism Office’s (MGTO) forecast, raising concerns within the industry.
In an interview with Macau Daily, Andy Wu, president of the Macau Tourism Industry Association, noted that the city’s focus on attracting international tourists last year may have inadvertently led to the neglect of traditional markets such as mainland China and Hong Kong. In response, the industry plans to strengthen efforts to retain its core visitor base while expanding into new markets.
According to the MGTO, Macau received 1.31 million visitors during the eight-day CNY holiday (January 28th–February 4th), marking a 3.5 percent year-on-year average daily decline. Mainland Chinese tourists accounted for 1 million of these arrivals, down 3.2 percent from the previous year.
The average daily visitation of approximately 163,700 was below the MGTO’s forecast of 185,000 visitors per day.
Wu pointed out a significant decline in visitation on certain days of the CNY holiday, attributing it to large-scale celebrations in neighboring regions. He suggested that many travelers may have chosen to visit Hong Kong or other cities for New Year festivities before heading to Macau, leading to an initial drop in visitor numbers, followed by a slight rebound as the holiday progressed.
Visitation from Hong Kong also saw an 8.9 percent year-on-year drop. Wu attributed this partly to the “Hong Kong Car Northbound” policy, which encouraged some Hong Kong residents to spend their holiday in mainland China rather than Macau, further impacting arrivals.
Despite the shortfall, Wu expressed confidence that visitor numbers could return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year, with continued government support.
Optimism amid fluctuating numbers
Wong Fai, president of the Macau Leisure Tourism Services Innovation Association, offered a more positive outlook, noting that visitor numbers on Day 3 (January 31st) of the holiday reached their highest level since 2019. He emphasized that the strong visitation early in the holiday demonstrated the effectiveness of off-peak travel strategies.
Although visitor numbers declined later in the holiday, Wong pointed out that overall foot traffic remained strong, suggesting the situation was less concerning than initially perceived.
He also highlighted policies such as the “multiple-entry” and “one trip per week” initiatives as potential long-term drivers of visitor growth.
However, the industry expert acknowledged challenges for retailers, as high foot traffic has not necessarily translated into increased sales. Wong advised businesses to adapt to evolving travel patterns and consumer preferences, as visitors are becoming more selective in their spending habits.
Visitor momentum offsets weaker tail
According to UBS analysts Angus Chan, Perry Yeung, Ryan Lau, and Robin M. Farley, visitor growth was strong in the early days of the CNY period but slowed from Day 5 (February 2nd) onward.
Their report suggests that the weaker tail in the latter half of the holiday was influenced by the timing shift in 2025, with the CNY holiday ending one day earlier than in 2024.
During the first four days of the holiday, visitation increased by 6 percent year-on-year, helping to offset the subsequent decline. The visitor mix remained stable, with mainland visitors accounting for approximately 77 percent of the total—consistent with both 2019 and 2024 levels. Mainland visitation held steady at about 135,000 visitors per day, aligning with last year’s figures and pre-pandemic numbers.
UBS projects that gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the nine-day CNY holiday could range between MOP700 million ($87.2 million) and MOP750 million ($93.4 million) per day, with a final assessment expected on February 10th.
