Macau’s gaming sector saw softer-than-expected performance during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, with January’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching MOP18.3 billion ($2.27 billion)—6 percent below consensus.

Analysts at CLSA, Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan, attributed the subdued gaming revenue to weaker visitation levels, reinforcing concerns about near-term growth limitations for the sector.

According to the Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO), Macau received 1.31 million visitors during the eight-day CNY holiday (January 28th–February 4th), a 3.5 percent average daily decline year-on-year. Mainland Chinese tourists accounted for 1 million of these arrivals, down 3.2 percent from the previous year, while Hong Kong visitors totaled 231,000, reflecting a sharper 8.9 percent decline.

Despite the overall drop, Macau saw its peak visitor day on January 31st (the third day of the CNY holiday), with 219,000 arrivals—up 9.1 percent year-on-year. February 1st also recorded strong numbers, with 218,000 visitors, an 11.7 percent increase.

However, the first three days of the holiday (January 28th–30th) saw significant year-on-year declines, ranging from 19.3 percent to 34.9 percent. In contrast, the latter five days (January 31st–February 4th) recorded year-on-year visitor growth of 3.8 percent to 11.7 percent.

CLSA analysts noted that the weaker visitation translated into lackluster gaming performance.

‘Macau’s January gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP18.3 billion was underwhelming, aligning with lukewarm visitation levels averaging 150,662 visitors per day from January 29 to 31,’ stated the analysts. They also pointed to a bottleneck in GGR growth, with daily gaming revenue fluctuating between MOP573 million ($71.8 million) and MOP637 million ($79.8 million) on non-Golden Week months.

The softer gaming performance was further underscored by hotel pricing trends. According to a pre-CNY survey by Morgan Stanley, the average daily rate (ADR) for most Macau hotels was expected to be 15–40 percent lower than CNY 2024 and 10–30 percent below October’s Golden Week levels.

The survey, which compiled ADR and occupancy data from 28 Macau hotels, focused on the CNY period from January 28th to February 4th (public holiday days only). Data collected 14 days before the holiday period showed that the standard room ADR for Macau’s hotels during CNY 2025 stood at HK$3,911 ($503).

Despite the softer start to the year, CLSA maintains its forecast of 4 percent GGR growth in 2025, reaching $29.3 billion—though this remains 2 percent below broader market consensus.

Analysts argue that substantial gaming revenue acceleration is unlikely until consumer confidence in China improves, which they anticipate will occur in 2026 as property prices stabilize.