Thailand’s attempt to push through casino legislation has always been a roll of the dice. But recent political shifts are exposing just how fragile the possibilities are. Gaming veteran and author Daniel Cheng looks at exactly how the nation got into the current situation, and what’s in play.

It had begun so well.

Since 2021, when motions in the Thai legislature for casinos encapsulated within large-scale integrated entertainment facilities were introduced while the kingdom was under a military government, their progress has moved at a brisk clip that has left the Japanese green with envy. It took more than 20 years for the sun to rise over integrated resorts with casinos in Japan; now, they’re smirking in the Land of Smiles at the unimaginable prospect that a casino entertainment complex could welcome customers before the Osaka integrated resort, which will likely open only in 2031.

The cool market response to skepticism over whether the Thai plan could outlive the junta after the return of civil rule was quickly laid to rest when the Pheu Thai coalition government made it among its top priorities. Bipartisan political support has remained strong, and investors’ interest was suddenly piqued.

Optimistic origins

The watershed moment was the return from exile of Thaksin Shinawatra. Optimism rose even higher when the pro-economics former prime minister got back to his element as if he had never left and gave enthusiastic endorsement of the plan. When his daughter subsequently took over as prime minister, the entertainment complex bill immediately became the top agenda of her new administration.

At the same time, the father was already taking meetings with the CEOs of major international gaming companies. The Shinawatra family express couldn’t get to its destination quickly enough. Thai political horology runs on five-year cycles, a  ticking clock within which the finish line has to be reached for the incumbent government to reap its fruits before the mandate ends.

Here we go again.

They say in Thailand, ช้าๆ ได้พร้าเล่มงาม, which is more or less equivalent to the proverb of ‘more haste, less speed.’ It was a harsh lesson learned in Japan when the government led by the late Shinzo Abe barreled the Integrated Resort bill through the Japanese Diet. This sheer tyranny of the majority achieved a landmark breakthrough but not without consequences, provoking public ire and resulting in a lackluster rollout of the sector that left two casino licenses begging.

Slow didn’t exist in Thaksin’s nomenclature, where he built his business empire in a world where hesitation meant failure. All that is fine and good for the entertainment complex’s prospects provided he could pull it off. And the odds had been more than fair, given a Shinawatra in the premier’s seat presiding over a majority parliamentary coalition.

Emulation but no success (yet)

Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s administration was also going through all the necessary steps in the process: extraordinary parliamentary committee studies, publishing each iteration of the bill’s draft for public feedback, adhering to amendments by the Council of State, essentially emulating much of what Singapore did with its casino legislation. But Thailand is not Singapore. The same touches and processes that yielded results in the city-state can be cut and pasted for its ASEAN counterpart. They differ vastly in their political cultures, governance structures, levels of civil society engagement, and even economic realities.

What fits Singapore’s tightly managed model would be an imported model misfiring on Thai soil environment that is far more contested and unpredictable. The central issue is that Thaksin’s homecoming has reopened old and deep wounds with Bhumjaithai founder Newin Chidchob. The two longtime strongmen remain the de facto (some say “spiritual”) leaders of the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties. Once close allies and bosom buddies, they are now bitter enemies, ‘reunited’ in the uncomfortable position of leading the two dominant parties in the Thai government coalition (well, until a few days ago). It’s an uneasy truce, always one stray shot away from breaking.

And shatter it did as many expected, doesn’t matter who fired the first salvo. The welled up animosity came up hard, fast fraying the already delicate Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai marriage of convenience. The battle royale prevailed over rational minds as each hit out at the other’s closest to the soul. And shatter it did, just as many had expected. It didn’t matter who fired the first salvo. The long-simmering animosity surged to the surface, tearing through the already fragile Pheu Thai–Bhumjaithai marriage of convenience. A battle royale overwhelmed reason as each side struck where it hurt most, at what the other held dearest.

For Newin, it was his beloved MotoGP event in his home province of Buriram along with the marijuana legislation. The Entertainment Complex Bill and the Land Bridge project were Thaksin’s brainchildren.

Impasse

In this standoff there can be no winners, only losers, as Team Red and Team Blue hold cards that effectively cancel each other out. The former controls all the key ministerial posts, thanks to having twice as many House seats as Bhumjaithai. The latter commands the Senate and a majority of provincial leadership positions. The worst kept secret brewing for weeks that Pheu Thai was planning to reclaim the powerful Interior Minister seat from Bhumjaithai proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. So it came as no surprise when Bhumjaithai withdrew from the government last Wednesday, leaving the ruling coalition with only a slim majority in the House of Representatives.

With no need for further pretenses, Bhumjaithai subsequently reversed its support for the Entertainment Complex legislation, putting the already unpopular bill in even greater peril. With the odds now heavily stacked against it, Pheu Thai grudgingly postponed the bill’s presentation in the House, which had been scheduled for July 9th.

It was Japan all over again, where the hubris of politicking derailed momentum to legalize casino gambling. In Japan’s case, the legislation still managed to stumble over the line. For Thailand, it will depend on how the political factions regroup on each side. But with Thaksin facing the possibility of reliving his jail sentence and his daughter potentially being ousted as Prime Minister, the plan for entertainment complexes will surely take a back seat even as the Red and Blue teams continue to slug it out from opposite sides of the aisle.

Nervous investors in the entertainment complex space, gathered in Bangkok, might be tempted to calm their nerves with some weed that is legally available in the kingdom. Oh wait, that, too, is on track to become collateral damage.