Macau’s gaming industry recorded its strongest Golden Week performance in more than five years, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching MOP5.5 billion ($687.5 million) in the first five days of October, according to a report by J.P. Morgan Securities.
The figure represents a daily run rate of about MOP1.1 billion ($137.5 million), marking the best early-October showing since before the pandemic.
However, analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian noted that year-on-year growth was ‘relatively muted’ at around 3 percent, following a particularly strong base in 2024. Flat visitation figures during the period—partly attributed to a typhoon that temporarily disrupted travel and ferry services—also weighed on growth momentum. Data from Macau’s tourism office show visitation fell by about 25 percent on October 5th due to the storm, contributing to the brief slowdown.
Despite this, J.P. Morgan emphasized that the softer numbers were ‘not a cause for concern,’ projecting that the longer eight-day holiday period this year would sustain demand in the latter half of the week.
The bank expects second-week GGR to rise by mid-to-high teens year-on-year to approximately MOP750 million ($93.8 million) per day, narrowing the week-on-week decline compared with last year’s 40 percent to around 30 percent.
Overall, J.P. Morgan maintained its full-month GGR forecast at MOP23 billion ($2.88 billion), representing an 11–13 percent increase year-on-year, which would mark Macau’s highest monthly total in six years. The analysts said they expect ‘sustained double-digit growth through at least the first quarter of 2026,’ supported by stronger operating leverage and improving investor confidence.
J.P. Morgan projects sector earnings to accelerate in the coming quarters, forecasting EBITDA growth of approximately 10 percent, 15 percent, and 20 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, respectively. The report noted that the investor base remains ‘heavily hedge-fund driven,’ but could broaden as long-only fund positions return, driven by improving earnings visibility and positive operating trends.
Strong October supported by macro tailwinds
A separate report released by CLSA on October 3rd, prior to J.P. Morgan’s update, offered a similarly optimistic outlook. The brokerage projected that Macau’s October GGR could grow 9 percent year-on-year to MOP22.6 billion ($2.83 billion), noting that ‘upside risks prevail.’
The CLSA team, led by Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan, said their observations from site visits on October 1st indicated ‘steady minimum bets and more family travelers’ compared with previous Golden Weeks. Minimum Baccarat bets ranged from MOP500 ($62.5) to MOP5,000 ($625), with MOP2,000 ($250) being the most common.
According to CLSA, daily visitation during the first two days of the holiday reached around 151,000, roughly 3 percent higher than 2019 levels and in line with government projections. The analysts said this supported expectations for robust mass-market play, adding that the gaming sector remains underpinned by ‘still-supportive key macro metrics.’
CLSA highlighted a set of economic indicators that could sustain Macau’s GGR recovery in the coming months. Among them, a strengthening Renminbi—forecast to rise to 7.09 per US dollar by the end of 2026—is expected to enhance consumer purchasing power and boost gaming expenditure.
The firm also pointed to China’s improving industrial profitability, citing the widening spread between the country’s producer price index (PPI) and purchasing price index (PPI), which historically leads Macau’s GGR growth by about six months. Additionally, the ongoing recovery in property prices across major Chinese cities could further lift consumer sentiment and discretionary spending.
‘Key macro metrics remain supportive,’ CLSA wrote, noting that a ‘weaker dollar and stronger Renminbi tend to correlate with higher gaming spend per visitor.’ The brokerage added that historical patterns show gaming revenue growth aligning closely with currency appreciation and China’s manufacturing profitability cycles.
