Macau’s gaming industry is expected to maintain revenue growth into 2026, supported by the continued appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar and resilient tourism demand.
According to CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan, these factors are extending the momentum in gross gaming revenue (GGR) observed since mid-2025.
In its latest investment memo, CLSA raised its GGR forecasts for the sector by 1.3 percent for 2025 and 3.5 percent for 2026, bringing projected revenues to HK$245.7 billion ($30.6 billion) and HK$255.6 billion ($31.8 billion), respectively. The brokerage highlighted the ‘RMB strength against the US dollar’ and improving macroeconomic conditions in China as main drivers of the revision.
While the firm raised its 2025 and 2026 forecasts, it left its 2027 projection largely unchanged, expecting GGR to reach HK$269.3 billion ($33.5 billion), equivalent to 92 percent of 2019 levels.
The analysts cautioned, however, that the next upgrade cycle will likely depend on the stabilization of property prices in China, which they view as an important catalyst for consumer confidence and spending power.
Strong 2Q25 extends into 3Q25
Following strong second-quarter results, Macau’s casino operators have continued to post growth in the third quarter. CLSA noted that August GGR came in 1 percent above its forecast, supported by a 0.4 percent RMB appreciation since July and stronger profitability indicators from Chinese factories.
Tourism demand is also bolstering performance. The analysts reported that 33 of the 38 hotels they track are already fully booked for the upcoming October Golden Week, typically one of the busiest periods for Macau. Average hotel room rates are running 13 percent higher than the same period last year, signaling healthy visitor demand. ‘Macau’s robust revenue momentum has continued quarter-to-date,’ the report stated.
In this context, CLSA projects September GGR will rise 10 percent year-on-year to MOP18.9 billion ($2.35 billion).
The reports mentioned that the CLSA Chief economist Leif Eskesen expects the RMB to strengthen to 7.13 per US dollar by the end of 2025, and further to 7.10 by the end of 2026. This appreciation is seen as a tailwind for Macau’s casino industry, as it supports outbound travel from Mainland China, which accounts for more than 70 percent of Macau’s visitation.
The link between RMB strength and Macau casino valuations is also statistically significant. According to CLSA, since January 2023, there has been a strong mathematical relationship between the currency’s strength and how investors value gaming companies. ‘This bodes well for the sector’s GGR growth ahead due to better outbound travel from Mainland China, setting the stage for stock re-rating,’ the note explained.
On the back of the revised forecasts, CLSA now expects sector EBITDA to rise to $8.4 billion in 2025, a 7 percent year-on-year increase, and further to between $8.9 billion and $9.7 billion in 2026–2027.
