Macau’s gaming industry is set to achieve its first double-digit growth in recent months, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) likely to exceed MOP19.5 billion ($2.43 billion) in June, according to an investment memo from JP Morgan.
The forecast is encouraging, as the latest official GGR projections had expected Macau to record only a year-on-year growth of 0.5 percent.
The investment bank reported that gaming revenue for the first 22 days of June reached MOP14.8 billion ($1.85 billion), averaging over MOP670 million ($83.6 million) per day. This performance indicates that if the final seven days of the month maintain an average daily revenue of MOP685 million ($85.5 million)—similar to May’s MOP684 million ($85.4 million) daily average—June would effectively break its traditional seasonal downturn.
Analysts believe the data received a boost from Jacky Cheung’s concert series. JP Morgan expressed encouragement about the recent demand that exceeded both seasonal expectations and forecasts, which aligns with a previous market assessment by Citigroup.
JP Morgan also noted this represents a positive turning point after more than a year of disappointing trends in Macau’s gaming sector.
Compared to pre-pandemic levels, the projected revenue indicates a recovery rate of 82 percent, up from 76 percent in the first quarter of this year. The mass market and slot machine segments have achieved approximately 120 percent recovery rates, while the VIP room segment has reached 25 to 30 percent recovery. Both segments represent some of the highest recovery levels since the post-pandemic economic restart.
The data suggests that 2Q25 gaming revenue will achieve year-over-year growth of 5 to 6 percent and quarter-over-quarter growth of 2 to 4 percent.
This performance marks an improvement for Macau’s gaming industry, which has been working to adapt following changing consumption patterns in the post-COVID era.
