Macau’s gaming performance in January and during the Chinese New Year period falls short of expectations, and investment bank Citigroup believes the trend may only start to improve by mid-2025.
In its latest investment memo, Citigroup analyst George Choi notes that Macau’s GGR in January 2025 averages MOP589 million ($73.4 million) per day, lower than expected.
The first five days of February see an even weaker performance, averaging MOP900 million ($112.2 million) per day, with approximately MOP4.5 billion ($561 million) in total GGR.
On a like-for-like basis, this is 10 to 12 percent lower than the same period in 2024 but about 75 percent higher than January 2025’s daily average of MOP589 million ($73.4 million).
‘At the current run rate, combined January-February GGR could mark the second consecutive month of negative growth,’ Choi observes.
Based on industry sources, teh brokerage notes that VIP volumes are approximately 55 to 60 percent higher month-on-month, while mass GGR is 40 to 45 percent higher. The VIP hold rate appears to be above normal levels.
However, the implied spend per player is lower than expected, prompting Citigroup to revise its February 2025 GGR forecast downward to MOP18.75 billion ($2.34 billion)—just a 1 percent year-on-year increase and around 74 percent of February 2019 levels—down from the previous MOP20 billion ($2.49 billion) estimate. This implies that GGR will average about MOP620 million per day for the rest of the month.
GGR forecast revised downward
The Chinese New Year period, an eight-day public holiday in mainland China (January 28th – February 4th) and a crucial revenue driver, also underperforms.
‘Some last-minute trip cancellations by players toward the end of the CNY Golden Week’ contribute to the weak results, Choi explains.
Additionally, the implementation of U.S. tariffs on China on February 1st further dampens gaming demand. As a result, Citigroup revises its 2025 GGR forecast, lowering its projected year-on-year growth to 3 percent, down from the previous 7 percent estimate. The bank now expects first-half GGR to decline by 1 percent compared to 2024.
Stronger recovery expected in 2H25
However, Citigroup anticipates that gaming activity will gain momentum in the second half of 2025, driven by clearer trade policies and high-profile non-gaming entertainment offerings.
‘We expect player sentiment to start recovering in 2H25 as the impact of tariffs gets absorbed,’ Choi states.
Seasonal trends, along with major entertainment events—such as the Jacky Cheung concert at Galaxy Arena in June—are expected to boost demand, with further gains anticipated during the summer holidays and October Day Golden Week.
Citigroup now forecasts second-half GGR to reach MOP119.5 billion ($14.89 billion), translating to an average daily run rate of approximately MOP550 million ($68.6 million) and a 6 percent year-on-year increase. Additionally, Macau will benefit from a relatively low base effect in the latter half of the year, following disruptions in late 2024 caused by trip postponements linked to the Andy Lau concert and the 25th-anniversary celebrations.
