As the US presidential race heats up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, several bookmakers are pointing to a Trump victory on November 5th.
Blockchain-based election betting site Polymarket has reported a 60 percent chance of a Trump victory, marking the first time this threshold has been crossed since late July.
Recently both Reuters and The Wall Street Journal reported that the surge in betting was fueled by four accounts that collectively placed over $30 million in wagers.
Since Polymarket prohibits US residents from placing bets on US elections, with the company verifying all its significant traders to ensure they are not using VPNs to hide their actual locations, these users are believed to be overseas gamblers.
Other prominent betting platforms echo this trend: Betfair places Trump’s odds at approximately 58 percent, while Kalshi assigns him a 57 percent chance, and PredictIt and Smarkets give him 54 percent and 58 percent, respectively.
Election Betting Odds, which aggregates data from major markets, shows Trump with a 57 percent likelihood of winning, the most favorable margin since July 29th, up from around 48 percent at the end of September.
The emergence of legal election betting markets has added a new dimension to the political landscape, allowing citizens to wager on outcomes following a recent court ruling that lifted restrictions on such platforms.
During the 2020 US presidential election, more than $1 billion were believed to have been wagered worldwide on the possible winner even before polling day.
On October 2nd, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled in favor of Kalshi, a New York-based financial exchange, allowing it to offer event contracts on the presidential race and other electoral metrics. New contracts were made available on Kalshi and brokerage giant Interactive Brokers within days.
Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s founder, reported over $12 million wagered shortly after the ban was lifted, while Barron’s noted more than $6.3 million had been bet on the Harris-Trump matchup.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has expressed concerns regarding the legality of such markets, but the recent ruling has opened new avenues for political analysis.
While traditional polling, such as that from The New York Times, indicates Harris leading Trump 50 percent to 47 percent, prediction markets present a contrasting narrative, with Kalshi estimating Trump has a 55 percent chance of victory.
Social media has also played a role in shaping these betting markets, with a recent post from Elon Musk boosting Trump’s odds on Polymarket after he claimed Trump was leading Harris in betting markets. Following Musk’s comments, Trump’s lead on the platform surged nearly 10 points.
