Rising political tensions in Thailand are anticipated to hinder major government projects, particularly the proposed entertainment and casino complex.
This situation has led China Galaxy Securities (CGS) to lower its Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index target for 2025 from 1,530 to 1,380 points, The Bangkok Post reported.
According to Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at CGS International Securities, a no-confidence debate is expected against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in the final week of March, following opposition parties filing a motion against her.
While CGS believes the prime minister is likely to survive this political challenge, uncertainties stemming from tensions between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the Bhumjaithai Party—Thailand’s second-largest coalition partner—could weigh heavily on market sentiment.
Kasem highlighted that ongoing conflicts might impede significant government initiatives, including plans for the entertainment complex, which is seen as a key project for economic growth.
On top of domestic political uncertainties, Thailand is also facing potential economic challenges from abroad. Concerns over reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. government could further affect Thai exports, which comprised 18% of the country’s total exports last year, an increase from 13% in 2019.
The trade surplus with the U.S. surged from 2.5% of GDP in 2019 to a record high of 6.6% in 2024, highlighting Thailand’s growing economic ties with the U.S.
