Macau GGR to rebound swiftly after World Cup slowdown: Citigroup

Macau gross gaming revenue is expected to recover quickly after a near-term slowdown linked to the FIFA World Cup, supported by a busy calendar of concerts and major events immediately after the tournament, according to Citigroup analysts.

Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau forecast Macau GGR to decline 10 percent year-on-year in June and 5 percent in July, as the World Cup, running from June 11th to July 19th, could temporarily divert gaming budgets from Macau.

However, the analysts expect a ‘swift GGR recovery’ immediately after the tournament, led by a busy calendar of star-studded concerts and events in mid-July. These include performances by K-pop groups and Taiwanese singer Zhao Chuan, as well as NBA China Games featuring the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks, which the analysts said should attract visitors and stimulate spending.

Citigroup said this would support a return to positive GGR growth for the rest of the year, with the brokerage forecasting Macau GGR growth of 6.5 percent for 2026 and 5.7 percent in the second half.

The analysts said this year’s World Cup could have a stronger impact than previous major soccer tournaments due to its expanded format. The tournament includes 104 total matches, more than double the 51 matches in UEFA Euro 2024 and well above the 64 matches in the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Citigroup pointed to UEFA Euro 2024 as a recent example of the impact major soccer tournaments can have on Macau gaming demand. During the event, from June 14th to July 14th, Macau GGR fell to a trough of MOP514 million ($64 million) per day, 17 percent lower than the 2024 daily average of MOP620 million ($77 million).

Despite the expected short-term weakness, Citigroup said it remains bullish on Macau gaming stocks, describing any pullback as an ‘enhanced buying opportunity.’ The analysts said their investment approach is to ‘defend and counterattack,’ recommending investors build positions during potential short-term share-price weakness.

Citigroup maintained Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China as its top picks, citing premium mass strength and dividends. It also rated Wynn Macau, MGM China and Melco as buys, while maintaining a sell rating on SJM. The brokerage said Galaxy, Sands China, Wynn Macau and MGM China have resumed dividends and offer yields of 5 percent to 7 percent.