The plot thickens…Thailand’s new draft casino bill straddles a thin line between economic heaven and a burning effigy.
What a difference a month makes. It was all quiet on the Siamese front during the spring as the Thai Finance Ministry headed a multi-ministry effort to review the entertainment complex legislative plan, but the relative silence was then shattered by an August Avalanche.
The month opened with the much-anticipated release of the draft entertainment complex bill for public comment. While this news boosted the casino industry, it was quickly overshadowed in the Thai media by the Constitutional Court’s dissolution of the largest political party in Parliament. Most gaming executives dismissed this political upheaval as peripheral news, failing to recognize its potential long-term implications for the industry.
However, a week later, the same court escalated the crisis by dismissing Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. This development prompted some industry analysts to express grave concerns about the future of casino legalization in Thailand, fearing that the effort might be abandoned altogether with his departure.
Despair turned to relief when Paetongtarn Shinawatra was quickly appointed as the replacement, effectively preserving the casino legacy of her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The latter, though, was also under scrutiny by the courts a few days later when they scheduled a hearing for his alleged lèse-majesté offenses for July next year. The political shenanigans were not yet over for the month.
The opportunity to appoint a new prime minister and Cabinet allowed the Pheu Thai Party to consolidate its power, reshuffle the coalition government, and remove the former junta party, Palang Pracharath (PPRP), which they blamed for causing the court troubles for Srettha and Thaksin. In a double blow to the PPRP, more than half of the party’s MPs defected to stay with the Pheu Thai coalition government.
Paetongtarn’s appointment restored optimism among casino investors, as it secured Cabinet positions held by Pheu Thai members—including Julapun Amornvivat, Deputy Finance Minister and a key figure in entertainment complex legislation. Additionally, replacing the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) with the Democrat Party likely diminished significant opposition to the entertainment complex legislation.
Emboldened by his daughter’s ascension, Thaksin delivered his first public speech, emphasizing that the new government must prioritize casino legislation. Following Thaksin’s forum, the flow of interest surged. While Japan’s private sector remained cautious about casino investments, Thai businesses exhibited no such hesitation. A veritable row of Thai billionaires quickly formed as major conglomerates lined up for the lucrative entertainment complex licenses. Each suitor boasted a place on Forbes’ prestigious list of Thailand’s richest people.
Notably, Thaksin’s dinner talk was held at Siam Paragon, the flagship mall of the Mall Group, led by matriarch Supaluck Umpujh, who Forbes ranked #13 among Thailand’s wealthiest. Local media reports state that the Mall Group plans to repurpose a $1.5 billion development currently underway in the Bang Na suburb of Bangkok to secure an entertainment complex license. Not stopping there, the Umpujh family is reportedly considering expanding an existing mixed-use real estate project in Phuket to include another entertainment complex in the island’s tourist hub.
The U-Tapao Airport and Eastern Airport City Project, a crucial infrastructural hub in the Eastern Economic Corridor, has been widely speculated to be one of the first locations for a Thai entertainment complex. As part of a three-node high-speed rail line connecting U-Tapao, Don Mueang, and Suvarnabhumi Airports, the $8.5 billion Eastern Airport City mega development was awarded in 2020 to U-Tapao International Aviation Company (UTA) through a competitive bid.
Major partners in the successful concessionaire include Bangkok Airways and BTS Group Holdings, which hold 45 percent and 35 percent stakes, respectively. UTA envisions incorporating an entertainment complex into the development. The BTS Group, led by billionaire Keeree Kanjanapas (#28 on Forbes), operates Bangkok’s Skytrain.
Interestingly, Kanjanapas also has media interests through a joint venture with the Sansiri Group, which is owned by former Prime Minister Srettha. Bangkok Airways, the largest shareholder in UTA, is controlled by business magnate Prasert Prasarttong-Osoth, who holds a lofty #6 position on Forbes’ list. His family’s extensive holdings, including Thailand’s largest private hospital operator, BDMS, suggest the potential for a medical tourism-focused entertainment complex if UTA secures a license.
Even closer to the Forbes summit are the Chearavanont brothers (#2), whose Charoen Pokphand (CP) Group encompasses a vast empire in food and telecommunications. Reports indicate that the group is eyeing an entertainment complex in the heart of Bangkok, at Makkasan within the Ratchathewi district. Makkasan will be a major station on the three-airport high-speed rail link, which the CP Group is constructing with the State Railway of Thailand as part of a $6.5 billion public-private partnership deal.
As Japan’s experience shows, without stringent regulations, pretenders will emerge. My July op-eds on CNA and AGB highlighted Khlong Toei as a potential location for an entertainment complex. Now, the Royal Turf Club of Thailand, allegedly backed by the royal family, is proposing a $6 billion development in the area. The Royal Siam Haven is said to have already signed a memorandum of understanding with five foreign and four Thai partners.
The Sirivadhanabhakdi family (#3 on Forbes), whose portfolio includes Chang Beer and Frasers Property, has distanced itself from the project after its Asset World Corporation (AWC) property arm was linked to it. AWC President Wallapa Traisorat—daughter of group patriarch Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi—was quick to deny any involvement, stating that the casino business does not align with their development model.
Let’s collectively pause and reflect as a hectic August comes to a close. As we look ahead, a new chapter may be unfolding: a whirlwind courtship between major international casino operators and the lineup of leading Thai conglomerates in search of their perfect match to snare one of the entertainment complex licenses.
The Thai tycoons are seasoned in joint ventures and partnerships which contributed to their success far and beyond local shores. However, they will take heed and tread carefully with gaming companies that typically don’t play well with others in an industry known for many acrimonious and failed unions, with MGM Resorts and Hard Rock being among the few exceptions.
While the release of the draft bill is a significant milestone, it’s important to remember that it’s just the beginning. Although the bill is a commendable effort, its 65 sections fall short of a comprehensive regulatory framework. To illustrate, Singapore’s Casino Control Act, with its 200 sections, provides a much more detailed and in-depth approach. Greater clarity will discourage additional unqualified applicants for the licenses that have hindered the process in Japan.
The Thai government needs to seek industry subject-matter expertise to refine the entertainment complex framework moving forward. Singapore had engaged various industry consultants with deep knowledge in different disciplines in the enactment of its gaming law. It could make the difference between a robust new industry or a fire tinder house of cards.
I’ll conclude this commentary as I began, with the lyrical prose of Robert Peter Williams:
“Separate your right from wrongs. Come and sing a different song. The kettle’s on, so don’t be long.“
It’s in Thailand’s own hands to seize this opportunity and create something truly exceptional and successful.