International casino operators and local Thai advocates, anticipating billions in foreign direct investment and tens of thousands of new jobs, likely breathed a collective sigh of relief with the announcement that Paetongtarn “Ung Ing” Shinawatra will succeed Srettha Thavisin as Prime Minister of Thailand. This transition follows Srettha’s removal from office by a ruling from the kingdom’s powerful constitutional judiciary.
In the aftermath of Srettha’s abrupt ouster, the Pheu Thai Party, as the leader of the ruling coalition, was staring a dilemma in the face. While the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), the next largest coalition partner, seemed ready to claim the top position, Pheu Thai was constrained in its choices.
One of its previously nominated PM candidates was deemed too old and physically unfit to handle the demands of the role, and although Paetongtarn was seen as a future leader, concerns lingered about her readiness to assume the prime ministership at just 37 years old. Nonetheless, her eventual appointment has provided much-needed reassurance to observers in the casino investment community.
Although none in the slate of nominees pose a serious threat to the planned entertainment complex law, which includes the legalization of casino gambling, a shift in leadership to another political party would have introduced a new set of influential actors and alter the form and trajectory of the plan. Had Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of BJT, become Prime Minister, the political landscape would have changed significantly, forcing investors to reevaluate their strategies and potentially rendering their recent lobbying efforts ineffective if key contacts and sponsors were sidelined.
Prior to Srettha’s removal, Chaichanok Chidchob, the Bhumjaithai Party secretary-general, had already voiced concerns about perceived shortcomings in the draft bill. He had argued that it fails to address illegal gambling and could exacerbate problems in both legal and underground sectors and also questioned whether the projected benefits justify the required investment and criticized the bill for not specifying how Thai workers would secure jobs.
BJT’s stance is somewhat ironic, considering that the party was originally a proponent of legalized casinos, with its MPs backing the recommendations of the parliamentary casino committees they were part of. The criticism may reflect a strategy to gain more involvement and influence in the bill’s planning and implementation so as to ensure that their supporters and districts derive greater benefits from the entertainment complex investments.
This power play is a common aspect of the political sphere in any country. However, if left unchecked, it can undermine the benefits and objectives of bills and legislation as seen in Japan’s IR law. Japanese lawmakers routinely resorted to whataboutism, deflecting legitimate concerns and questions surrounding the integrated resort bill, ultimately undermining meaningful debate and leading to widespread public distrust.
With Paetongtarn in the Prime Minister’s office, much of Srettha’s one-year legacy is likely to remain intact, as most of his initiatives were widely acknowledged to be carried out at the behest of her father, the de facto Pheu Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra. Under Thaksin’s daughter, the entertainment complex plan may receive even greater priority, given it was an unfinished vision from Thaksin’s previous term as prime minister.
However, a new Cabinet lineup to be unveiled in early September will inevitably introduce fresh faces and decision-makers, prompting investors to reassess and realign their strategies. Srettha’s confidantes, who may have been instrumental in the process thus far, could lose influence, while loyalists close to the Shinawatra family might gain prominence.
During the Srettha administration, the U-Tapao Airport redevelopment near Pattaya was considered the likely site for the first entertainment complex. This focus might shift under Thaksin’s more ambitious vision, potentially prioritizing a complex in Bangkok instead. Additionally, the key northeast region—once a Pheu Thai stronghold but recently ceded ground to the People’s Party (formerly Move Forward Party)—might see a new entertainment complex investment in Chiang Mai as Thaksin seeks to regain support.
This ‘soft reset’ also presents lagging casino operators with a valuable opportunity to catch up with early movers. In truth, the situation provided a necessary breather for the unchecked pace of the legislation, which risked losing sight of the bigger picture. An analysis of legislation establishing a new industry sector that is confined solely to the textual content, neglecting specifics on implementation, governance, enforcement, oversight, and regulation, is fundamentally incomplete.
The efficacy and consequences of any law depend not only on its provisions but also on the precise mechanisms for its implementation, oversight, and regulation. Without a clear roadmap for these critical elements, accurately assessing the entertainment complex bill’s potential benefits, risks, and overall impact is unattainable. Consequently, the current phase of focusing exclusively on legislative text, divorced from its practical application, lacks transparency and will only lead to erroneous and misleading assessments.
The extent of Paetongtarn’s autonomy will determine whether her leadership continues the status quo or if she will heed public feedback and input from the parliament floor, particularly the more objective critiques from the progressive People’s Party. Investors should also carefully consider their lobbying strategies in anticipation of the potential political landscape beyond 2027.
A single-party majority reformist government is a distinct possibility, which could put existing casino licenses at risk if rigorous scrutiny uncovers questionable partnerships or shareholdings involved in the original license award. A party that wins the most seats can still lose control of the government, and an elected prime minister can be ousted — A casino license can be revoked. In Thailand, it may still not be over even after the fat lady sings.
