Deutsche Bank has raised its earnings estimates and price target for Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS) following the group’s 4Q25 results, citing stronger-than-expected performance at Marina Bay Sands (MBS) that more than offset softer trends in Macau.
The revisions were described as ‘modest’, with gains driven entirely by Singapore and partially offset by lower forecasts for Macau, according to the bank’s latest research note.
In its post-results assessment, Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella said LVS delivered upside to expectations at MBS, while Macau once again fell short of forecasts. MBS generated property-level EBITDA of $761 million on a hold-adjusted basis, around $85 million above Deutsche Bank’s estimate and roughly $76 million ahead of consensus. By contrast, Macau property EBITDA of $576 million, after hold adjustments, missed consensus by about $45 million.
As a result, Deutsche Bank lifted its price target on LVS and reaffirmed its buy rating. It added that the target increase reflects higher forecasts and a higher multiple applied to MBS, which it views as the group’s largest EBITDA contributor, highest-multiple asset, and wholly owned business.
Two speeds across LVS’s portfolio
Deutsche Bank outlined several positive factors underpinning its view. It noted that MBS continues to expand, with hold-normalized EBITDA up about 36 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, following similarly strong growth in the previous two quarters. Management remains confident in the outlook for MBS, citing potential for further growth if macroeconomic conditions remain supportive.
In Macau, the Londoner Macao continued to ramp up, with adjusted EBITDA rising about 40 percent yearly in the quarter and moving toward an estimated $1 billion run-rate EBITDA. The bank also pointed to ongoing capital returns, highlighting another $500 million of LVS share repurchases in the fourth quarter and additional buybacks of Sands China shares.
On the negative side, Deutsche Bank flagged continued margin pressure in Macau. Macau EBITDA again missed consensus despite net revenue coming in slightly above expectations, reflecting weaker flow-through, incremental event expenses, and higher payroll costs. Hold-normalized margins in Macau were down about 405 basis points year-on-year, while LVS’s Macau hold-adjusted EBITDA declined around 2 percent despite overall market gross gaming revenue growth of roughly 15 percent.
CLSA: focus remains on absolute EBITDA growth
In a separate report focused solely on Sands China, CLSA also pointed to margin pressure in Macau but emphasized management’s longer-term priorities.
CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang noted that EBITDA margins contracted due to higher operating expenses and a heavier mix of premium gaming segments. However, the brokerage said management remains focused on growing absolute EBITDA rather than near-term margins.
‘Going forward, Sands China’s key focus is still on growing the absolute EBITDA, though the company sees some stability in the promotional intensity,’ CLSA said, adding that this approach reflects a more normalized competitive environment in Macau.
Despite the headwinds in Macau, CLSA continues to rate Sands China as Outperform.
