Analysts are sounding a mixed note on MGM Resorts after the US casino group posted third-quarter results that underscored a widening gap between momentum in Macau and softer demand in Las Vegas.
MGM China again emerged as the standout, delivering adjusted EBITDA of HK$2.37 billion ($305 million) in the quarter, up 20 percent year-on-year, and gaining market share to 15.5 percent.
The company said Golden Week performance in early October was ‘up 20 percent year-on-year’, pacing toward ‘more than $100 million’ in October adjusted EBITDA and a market share of about 16.5 percent.
Jefferies analysts called performance ‘in line’ at the top line and ‘4 percent ahead’ of expectations on adjusted EBITDA, saying Golden Week ‘has been strong for MGM China’.
‘Macau continues to outperform and management reiterated its mid-teens market share ambition,’ the firm noted, adding that premium-customer strategy and dedicated product — including MGM Macau’s new Alpha Gaming Club — were helping drive gains.
But analysts caution that resilience in Asia contrasts with a more challenging picture at MGM’s home market.
‘Las Vegas missed forecasts while MGM China beat (them),’ Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Pizella wrote in a post-results note, describing the quarter as ‘mixed’ and highlighting pressure in Las Vegas from weaker room rates and occupancy.
The bank said early-October data showed revenue per available room in the Las Vegas market ‘down 7.7 percent year-on-year’, with one recent week ‘down roughly 20 percent’.
Still, analysts pointed to signs of stabilization. ‘The luxury market continues to show strength and group and convention demand is returning,’ Deutsche Bank said, citing management comments that advance bookings — including for major events — were improving into 2026.
BetMGM, the group’s digital joint venture, was seen as another bright spot. Analysts noted net revenue growth of around 23 percent in the third quarter and raised guidance for 2025. Management said the unit now expects to turn adjusted EBITDA positive next year.
Looking ahead, analysts expect MGM China to remain a core driver as Macau’s tourism recovery deepens. ‘We see continued momentum in the premium segment and a rational competitive environment,’ Jefferies said, adding that MGM’s expansion of luxury suites in Cotai — set for completion in the first half of 2026 — should reinforce its positioning.
Still, some are bracing for ongoing volatility as the company balances contrasting cycles in its key markets. ‘In the short term we expect shares to be volatile,’ Deutsche Bank said, citing sentiment tied to Las Vegas fundamentals and a pattern of downward revisions in the US market that ‘needs to reverse’ before investor confidence recovers.
Longer term, analysts flagged catalysts including Macau strength, a maturing online gaming business and a full calendar of large-scale events and conventions in Las Vegas.
‘Macau is delivering, digital is advancing, and management sees stabilization signs in Las Vegas,’ Pizella added. ‘Execution on these levers will be key.’
