Investment bank Citigroup analysts have modestly raised their May 2025 gross gaming revenue forecast for Macau from MOP21 billion ($2.61 billion) to MOP21.25 billion ($2.64 billion), citing stronger-than-expected performance in the week of May 19th-25th that they attribute to the newly opened Capella at Galaxy Macau.
According to industry sources cited in Citigroup’s weekly gaming update, Macau’s gross gaming revenue for the first 25 days of May reached approximately MOP17.5 billion ($2.17 billion). This translates to a daily run rate of MOP686 million ($85.3 million) during the week of May 19th-25th, representing a 16 percent increase from the previous week’s MOP593 million ($73.7 million) per day.
The analysts noted that VIP volumes grew approximately 25 to 30 percent month-over-month, while mass gross gaming revenue declined 10 percent month-over-month during this period. VIP hold rates appeared lower compared to the previous week but remained above normal levels.
‘The spike in last week’s gross gaming revenue was a pleasant surprise. We suspect this was due to the newly opened Capella at Galaxy Macau,’ Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau stated in their report.
The revised May forecast of MOP21.25 billion ($2.64 billion) represents 82 percent of May 2019 levels and reflects a 5 percent year-over-year increase. For the final six days of May, the analysts expect gross gaming revenue to average MOP625 million ($77.7 million) per day, representing a one percent increase versus the 2024 average.
Macau’s gaming sector showed particularly strong momentum at the beginning of May during mainland China’s Labor Day Golden Week holiday. The Special Administrative Region recorded gross gaming revenue of MOP5.1 billion ($634 million) during the first five days of May, averaging MOP1.02 billion ($127 million) per day. This performance represented robust year-over-year growth of 12 percent despite a higher 2024 comparison base, reaching more than 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels for the same period.
Tourism figures also exceeded expectations during the holiday period, with Macau recording 850,000 visitor arrivals during the five-day Labor Day holiday, averaging 170,000 daily visitors. This represented a 40.7 percent increase from the previous year, breaking post-pandemic records according to the Macau Government Tourism Office (MGTO).
Given that only one weekend day remains in May, the analysts expect the daily gross gaming revenue for the remaining days of the month to be moderate.
