Citigroup has projected Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for October 2024 to reach MOP20.5 billion ($2.56 billion), reflecting a 5 percent year-on-year increase.
This forecast was released ahead of the October Golden Week, a significant period for the gaming industry. Analyst George Choi notes that this growth is driven by strong advanced hotel bookings and robust demand from affluent players.
In the report, Citigroup anticipates that GGR will average approximately MOP592 million ($74 million) per day for the remainder of October. If this materializes, it would indicate a moderation of around 34 percent compared to the Golden Week, which typically experiences heightened gaming activity.
The report also highlights the optimistic expectations for the National Day Golden Week, with GGR anticipated to average around MOP900 million ($112 million) per day during this holiday period, aligning closely with the run rates observed during this year’s Chinese New Year and Labor Day holidays.
Revising mass GGR forecasts
Citigroup remains confident in its view that gaming demand from the Premium Mass segment, which represents approximately 60 percent of total mass GGR, continues to be robust. However, the most recent survey conducted in September 2024 indicated a decline in average Baccarat minimum bets for the first time since the reopening, signaling potential weaknesses in the grind mass sector.
While Choi acknowledges that one data point does not establish a trend, the report advises a conservative approach, leading to a reduction of 3 to 5 percent in GGR forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2024 through 2026.
He states, ‘We expect this weakness to start fading in mid-2025E when the incremental policy combo recently announced by the Mainland Chinese government starts to boost disposable income.’
Citigroup remains bullish on Macau
Citigroup maintains a bullish stance on Macau, attributing this confidence to the enduring demand from Premium Mass players. The data collected from the firm’s proprietary table survey indicates that affluent players are still willing to spend in Macau, with spending trends appearing to accelerate.
Choi emphasizes the importance of advanced hotel bookings, noting that Premium Mass players have booked their accommodations significantly earlier than in past years—about 14 days in advance compared to 7 days in advance for the Chinese New Year this year.
While retail sales in Macau have exhibited signs of weakness, including a negative data point in the grind mass segment, Citigroup believes these trends are likely to be temporary. The recently announced policies by the Chinese government are expected to provide a much-needed boost to disposable income, reigniting discretionary spending in the region.
