Macau’s gaming sector posted a surprise uptick in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for April 2025, defying market expectations of a decline, but experts are circumspect.
Analysts from brokerage CreditSights warn that the city remains on a difficult path to achieving its ambitious full-year revenue target, as monthly GGR continues to fall short of government benchmarks.
According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) data, GGR rose 2 percent year-on-year to MOP18.9 billion ($2.3 billion) in April, outperforming consensus of a 1 percent decline.
While the result marked a second consecutive monthly beat, it remained below the MOP20 billion ($2.45 billion) level needed to stay on track with the government’s MOP240 billion ($29.2 billion) FY25 GGR target.
April’s figure also represented about 80 percent of pre-pandemic levels in 2019 and marked a 4 percent decline from March, a trend attributed by CreditSights to seasonal softness.
For the first four months of 2025, cumulative GGR reached MOP76.5 billion ($9.3 billion), just 32 percent of the full-year target and up only 0.8 percent year-on-year—well behind the 6 percent annual growth anticipated by officials.
Analysts at CreditSights say the city would require a significant uptick in both visitation and per-visitor gaming spend to meet the FY25 goal.
Based on current pacing, visitor arrivals would need to hit 38.1 million for the year—around 97 percent of 2019 levels—while GGR per visitor would need to average MOP6,300 ($770). As of April, however, GGR per visitor stood at MOP6,097 ($745), down 14 percent year-on-year and 5 percent month-on-month.
‘Unless we see sustained improvements in both visitation and per-visitor gaming spend in the coming months, we see a high likelihood that Macau will fall short of the government’s target’, the report warned.
Still, there is cautious optimism for a stronger performance in May, buoyed by a 41 percent year-on-year surge in tourist arrivals during the Labor Day holiday (May 1–5) and a series of high-profile concerts from regional stars such as Sammi Cheng and J-Hope.
Observations from casino floors in early May also pointed to robust foot traffic, with operators like Melco noting prolonged activity even after the holiday.
April saw total visitor arrivals rise 19 percent year-on-year to 3.1 million, reaching about 90 percent of April 2019 levels. Arrivals from mainland China—accounting for 69 percent of the total—jumped 22 percent to 2.1 million, with the Individual Visit Scheme contributing 1.1 million visitors, up 34 percent year-on-year.
International arrivals grew 10 percent, led by travelers from the Philippines, Thailand and India, though declines were recorded from Malaysia and Singapore.
CreditSights indicates that any future rebound in non-gaming revenue will be heavily reliant on sustained tourist inflows, particularly from higher-spending segments.
