Seaport Research Partners is projecting 7 percent growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Macau in 2025, with larger operators to benefit most in the long term.
The projection takes into account the potential for an upside surprise if there is a turnaround in the Chinese economy and improvement in consumer sentiment.
This anticipated growth in GGR is expected to drive an approximately 9 percent increase in EBITDA across the industry, according to the firm’s latest gaming analysis.
Looking at the longer term (2025-2027), Seaport expects similar levels of GGR growth. The report suggests market share shifts will primarily benefit larger gaming operators, such as Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group (GEG), while smaller operators are expected to lose ground. This trend could be amplified if the recovery in Macau’s base mass market is stronger than Seaport’s current forecast.
In Macau, Seaport notes that Sands China struggled during the quarter, impacted by softer play and bad hold—both of which the firm views as temporary. Melco Resorts and SJM likely saw a slight decline in market share, although the firm estimates their losses were less than 100 basis points.
Conversely, other operators in Macau are expected to gain 70-90 basis points in market share. Despite some cost increases and fierce competition, particularly in player reinvestment, the Macau market remains highly competitive, and Seaport expects this trend to persist.

Meanwhile, SJM is the only gaming operator ranked with a “Sell” rating. Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky mentions that SJM remains poorly positioned in an increasingly competitive Macau market.
‘We expect SJM to show quarter-over-quarter share loss in Q4 (estimated at -80bps). We expect SJM to struggle to gain share in 2025 and beyond, likely losing share due to an inferior product offering, poor location on Cotai, and potential loss of satellite casinos,’ Umansky notes.
‘The company faces significant headwinds due to its weak positioning—over-reliance on the Peninsula, continued lack of premium mass expertise, slow ramp-up of Grand Lisboa Palace (GLP)—and very high leverage. We have concerns around SJM’s debt levels, especially given the slow ramp-up at GLP. Additionally, SJM has no ability to restart its dividend in the foreseeable future,’ he adds.

US market
Looking towards the home base of a number of Macau operators, Umansky remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for Las Vegas. However, Seaport takes a more cautious view of the regional US casino market, anticipating challenges in 2025.
The firm notes that 4Q24 comparisons for Las Vegas were expected to be tough due to the impact of the Formula 1 event, although results were likely not as negative as initially feared. Meanwhile, US regional markets showed steady performance in 4Q24, with MGM benefiting from easier year-over-year comparisons following the Detroit strike and cyber-attack in 4Q23.