Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 24 days of September is estimated to be approximately MOP12 billion ($1.49 billion), with an average of MOP500 million ($62.1 million) per day, as noted by investment bank JP Morgan.
According to the data collected, there has been a slight improvement week-on-week, as Macau was affected by a super typhoon earlier this month, leading to temporary casino shutdowns during certain hours.
In the latest investment memo, analysts at JP Morgan mention that quite a few investors also seem worried about the upcoming holiday as they can still see some rooms available on OTAs (online travel agencies). However, they believe that ‘it’s almost impossible to get any reliable color on Golden Week in advance based on FIT/outside room booking situations, as holiday GGR is almost always driven more by the quality of players than the quantity, as we have been writing for many years.’
Currently, the research team finds that over 90 percent of casino hotel rooms are already booked and sold out. Some rooms are still available on popular OTAs, but this situation is more common in those that opened this month, such as W Macau at Studio City or Andaz at Galaxy Macau.
‘This does not worry us because it’s pretty normal to have available rooms even for the peak of holidays in the past, particularly at the OTA levels, who pre-purchased the rooms.’
At the same time, this golden week is longer and spans more than eight days, as opposed to the typical seven-day golden week.
‘This is the first holiday since the reopening when all the rooms are available, as opposed to limited inventory in 1H23, amid labor shortages, etc., and the number of rooms has actually grown by 15-20 percent compared to pre-COVID levels.’
‘Our checks with gaming hosts indicate a pretty upbeat sentiment, with most expecting Golden Week to yield the highest GGR since the reopening, unsurprisingly so.’
JP Morgan reaffirms its belief that Macau’s mass market could fully recover in October and that the entire 3Q23 GGR could recover to 94 to 95 percent.
Macau tourism authorities forecast that Macau could see over 100,000 visitor arrivals daily during China’s National Day Golden Week.