Brokerage Jefferies has noted that the latest update for the Macau gaming industry is ‘positive’, as expectations for the May holiday were low due to bad weather. However, gross gaming revenue (GGR) indications are ‘strong’ and ‘only slightly below October’s Golden Week holiday’.
According to an investment memo released on Monday, right after the Labor Day holiday, Jefferies indicates that industry sources have noted that some canceled trips have been rebooked. This could lead to a more gradual post-holiday deceleration, and May could potentially be the strongest month year-to-date.
Based on industry sources and checks, Macau’s gaming revenue for the first five days of May was MOP910 million ($113 million) per day. Month-to-date, Mass and VIP GGR were 45-50 percent and 60 percent higher, respectively, compared to the previous month. Additionally, the VIP win rate rose to 3.3–3.5 percent.
‘This is a strong start to the month driven by the Labor holiday, which was only slightly below the first six days of October 2023’s Golden Week of MOP930-940 million per day.’
Analysts recall that the last two days of October 2023’s Golden Week had slowed to MOP520 million ($64.7 million) per day due to last-minute cancellations and early departures ahead of the typhoon on October 8th. If the last two days are included, the average daily rate (ADR) during the eight-day Golden Week holiday was MOP831 million ($103 million) per day. ‘In this instance, if the checks are correct and players rebooked later, ADR could sustain higher levels post the holiday,’ it added.
Jefferies mentions that industry sources estimate daily gaming revenue to slow down to MOP580 million ($72 million) to MOP650 million ($80.8 million) for the rest of the month. This implies a range of MOP19.6 billion ($2.44 billion) to MOP21.5 billion ($2.67 billion) for the full month of May.
At the lower end of the range, analysts indicate that this would be the second-highest monthly ADR this year, following February’s MOP637 million ($79.2 million) per day.
