A top analyst is forecasting that Macau’s gross gaming revenue in May could hit its highest monthly tally so far this year, and the highest since the onset of the pandemic, at MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion), even potentially going as high as MOP20.75 billion ($2.58 billion).
Vitaly Umansky, a Senior Analyst with Seaport Research Partners, gave the forecast in a Monday note.
The analyst notes that the MOP20 billion ($2.5 billion) figure is slightly above the group’s earlier estimate, noting that ‘with a strong start in May, a MOP20 billion month is reasonable, which would be up 8 percent month-on-month’. The increase would be above the typical monthly rise seen between 2017 and 2019 (which averaged 7.3 percent). It would also be dependent on daily GGR hitting MOP594 million ($74 million) – down 35 percent from that registered during the Labor Day holiday period.
‘If the remainder of the month sees daily GGR on par with March/April, GGR for the month of May could rise to MOP20.75 billion ($2.58 billion), 80 percent of May 2019,’ notes Umansky.
Speaking of Labor Day, the analyst noted visitation to the SAR during the five-day Golden Week ‘would have most certainly exceeded estimates if it had not been for the disruption caused by the weather’. Some 601,395 tourists visited the gaming hub during the holiday, below the daily tally of 130,000 expected by Macau’s tourism body (MGTO).
Without the impact of the weather, ‘the five-day Golden Week period could have been even better than the MOP900-MOP910 million ($112 – $113 million) per day average estimated’.
Regarding the breakdown, Umansky notes that ‘premium play showed continued strength, with bass mass showing a pickup on higher visitation levels’.
Estimates are that mass amounted to some 115-125 percent of 2019 levels, while VIP ‘would be in the 20 percent to low 30 percent compared to 2019’ during the holiday.
