Market-wide casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau reached MOP14.6 billion ($1.82 billion) in the first 23 days of March, according to estimates from Citigroup.
On Monday’s investment memo, Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau note that this figure translates to a daily run rate of MOP643 million ($80.1 million) for the week of March 17th-23rd. This represents a modest increase of 3 percent compared to the previous week, which saw a daily run rate of MOP621 million ($77.4 million). However, the overall monthly performance suggests a more nuanced picture.
While the weekly figures indicate a positive trend, underlying data points to a decline in both VIP and mass market segments.
Industry sources indicate that VIP volumes fell between 8 to 10 percent month-over-month, and mass GGR experienced a decrease of 7 to 9 percent month-over-month. This suggests that the slight weekly GGR increase may be attributed to a higher VIP hold rate, rather than an increase in overall gaming activity.
The month-to-date (MTD) daily GGR run rate of MOP635 million ($79.1 million) is largely flat year-over-year compared to the full month of March 2024, which recorded a daily run rate of MOP629 million ($78.4 million).
Given these observations, Citigroup analysts are maintaining their March 2025 GGR forecast unchanged at MOP19.5 billion ($2.43 billion). This forecast represents approximately 75 percent of the March 2019 levels and remains flat year-over-year. To reach this forecast, the remaining days of March would need to average a daily GGR of approximately MOP613 million ($76.4 million), a figure deemed conservative by the analysts.
