Morgan Stanley’s latest survey reveals that hotel prices in Macau will be softer during the upcoming May Day holiday period compared to both Chinese New Year 2025 and last year’s May holiday.
According to a report, average daily rates (ADR) for Macau hotels during the Labor Day holiday are approximately 14 percent lower than those during the 2025 Chinese New Year period and 2 percent below rates from the 2024 May Golden Week.
The Labor Day holiday, which will run from May 1st to May 5th in mainland China, traditionally represents one of the busiest travel periods for mainland Chinese tourists and is expected to bring a substantial boost to Macau’s visitor numbers, despite the lower rates.
Hotel occupancy is mixed, with a 5 percentage point decrease compared to Chinese New Year 2025, but a 4 percentage point increase versus May Golden Week 2024.
The survey, which compiled data from 28 Macau hotels for the holiday period (including April 30th and May 6th), found notable weaknesses at several properties. Galaxy saw softer quarter-over-quarter ADR and occupancy for both Galaxy Hotel and Hotel Okura, while Sands properties showed weaker occupancy for the Londoner Hotel despite improved ADR.
Morgan Stanley anticipates the upcoming May Golden Week will be similar to, or potentially weaker than, the February 2025 Chinese New Year period. While a first quarter 2025 EBITDA decline (down more than 5 percent year-over-year, on gross gaming revenue up 1 percent year-over-year) is already anticipated by the market, a weak second quarter driven by disappointing May holiday performance could lead to further downward revisions of 2025 earnings forecasts.
Industry rep optimistic about May Day visitor numbers
Despite the projected softer hotel rates, tourism officials remain upbeat about visitor arrivals for the upcoming May Day holiday. This optimism comes on the heels of a successful Easter holiday period that just concluded on Monday.
Andy Wu, president of the Macau Tourism Industry Association, described the Easter holiday performance as “outstanding”, with daily average visitor numbers reaching 130,000, significantly exceeding expectations and showing marked growth compared to the same period last year.
According to media outlet Macao Daily, “This holiday period delivered excellent results. The visitor distribution ratio was favorable, and tourists’ willingness to explore different districts marks a positive beginning that can stimulate the community economy to some extent,” Wu said. “We expect the May Day Golden Week to perform even better.”
According to Wu, Easter holiday visitors were enthusiastic about exploring local cuisine and visiting popular photo spots across various districts, driving community consumption. While he acknowledged that both Hong Kong and mainland Chinese tourists have become more conservative in their spending due to economic conditions, he emphasized that community economies can still thrive as long as visitor flows remain strong.
Looking ahead, Wu suggested enhancing “eye-catching elements” in community activities. With around one week until the May Day Golden Week holiday, the government has planned to establish a temporary pedestrian-only zone in the Old Taipa Village, nearby the Cotai Strip. Wu suggests that public transportation arrangements should be well-coordinated alongside this initiative. When visitors enter the community areas, addressing public transportation is the primary concern.
Drawing from experiences during the Chinese New Year period, it is recommended to provide special shuttle buses to meet tourists’ travel needs and ensure a positive tourism experience.
Macau has long suffered with transportation issues, limiting its goals for increased visitation, especially from long-haul markets.
