China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has lowered its earnings projections for Macau’s gaming operators, trimming EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 even as it maintained a recovery outlook for revenue and raised its 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) estimate.
The firm now expects industry EBITDA to grow 9 percent year-on-year in 2025 and 7 percent in 2026, recovering only to 89 percent and 96 percent of 2019 levels respectively, signaling what it described as a period of ‘revenue recovery but margin pressure’ for the sector.
CICC said it now projects Macau’s total gross gaming revenue to grow 9 percent year-on-year in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026, returning to 84 percent and 88 percent of pre-pandemic levels. Within this, mass-market revenue is expected to remain the ‘main engine of structural growth’, rising 7 percent in 2025 and 6 percent in 2026 to reach 119 percent and 126 percent of 2019 levels. However, VIP revenue is forecast to remain weak, rising 19 percent in 2025 before contracting 5 percent in 2026, equivalent to just 29 percent and 28 percent of 2019 levels.
Despite revenue stability, CICC warned that ‘EBITDA performance will lag GGR recovery’, pointing to intensifying market competition and rising reinvestment ratios as operators increase player incentives. The firm estimates the industry EBITDA margin at 23.44 percent in the third quarter of 2025, lower than 24.12 percent a year earlier and 23.94 percent in the previous quarter.
“We believe sector margins face ‘downside risk’ as new capacity ramps up and competitive pressures increase,” CICC wrote, noting that marketing costs and promotional spending have climbed across the industry.
CICC estimates industry EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025 will reach approximately $2.11 billion, up 9 percent year-on-year and 2 percent quarter-on-quarter, recovering to just 91 percent of the same period in 2019.
However, the firm also highlighted structural strengths in the market, including a rebound in tourism and high-end spending. From January to August 2025, international arrivals to Macau rose 14 percent year-on-year, supported by a weaker Hong Kong dollar and a ‘virtual asset wealth effect’ that has bolstered discretionary spending among premium players and crypto-driven capital flows.
Non-gaming entertainment continues to play a pivotal role in sustaining visitation growth. CICC noted that integrated resort operators have ‘significantly upgraded event strategies’ to attract repeat visitors and diversify customer demographics. ‘The expansion of concerts, sports events and international entertainment offerings is helping to build new visitor demand while deepening engagement with the mass market,’ the firm said.
In the period ahead, CICC cautioned that risks remain, including ‘slower-than-expected recovery in Macau GGR’ and ‘rising competitive pressure across Asia’, particularly from Singapore and the Philippines, which continue to expand their integrated resort offerings.
