The Macau Economic Association is forecasting an annual GDP of MOP400 billion ($50 billion) for 2024, showing an optimistic outlook despite the headwinds.
The estimate represents a year-on-year growth rate between 8 percent and 11 percent, bringing the economy back to about 87-90 percent of the levels seen in the same period of 2019.
The association highlighted the robust performance of key economic indicators during the peak summer tourism months of August and September. Visitor numbers, hotel occupancy rates, and employment figures all showed significant improvement, suggesting a healthy recovery in the tourism sector.
Out of the thirteen indicators used in their economic index, seven remained in the “overheated” or “hot” categories, while four indicators were classified as “stable.” However, the association noted concerns regarding consumer confidence among mainland Chinese tourists, as well as the stock prices of Macau’s gaming operators, which remained at a “lackluster” level. This indicates a persistent imbalance and lack of coordination in the overall economic environment.
Despite the positive trends, the overall economy in the third quarter of 2024 is expected to stabilize following a strong recovery in 2023. Given the high baseline from last year, Macau’s GDP growth for 3Q24 is projected to show a noticeable decline, with estimates placing it at approximately 4.2 percent.
The cumulative GDP for the first three quarters of 2024 is estimated to be around MOP290 billion ($36.2 billion), using expenditure-based calculations from 2022.
Non-performing loans
On the same note, the Macau Economic Association indicates that a troubling trend has emerged, with the non-performing loan (NPL) rate in Macau reaching a record high of 5.11 percent in August 2024. This figure is significantly above that of neighboring regions and poses risks to the profitability of local banks, increasing the asset risks they face.
On a positive note, mainland China’s government is intensifying its counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies.
In late September, aggressive stimulus measures were introduced, focusing on expanding domestic demand and revitalizing capital markets across five key areas. These policies are expected to promote economic growth and significantly enhance market confidence, potentially mitigating the high non-performing loan rates in Macau.
Meanwhile, various analysts expect that China’s stimulus could further support Macau’s gaming performance in the medium term.