Investment bank CLSA has lowered its growth expectations for Macau’s gaming sector, now projecting gross gaming revenue (GGR) to increase by just 1.8 percent to MOP230.8 billion ($28.7 billion) in 2025.
This modest growth is expected to be primarily driven by increased visitor numbers. It is also worth noting that these adjustments align with the recently mentioned downward revision intention by Macau authorities, as the region’s 1Q25 gaming revenues have missed official expectations.
In an investment memo, analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan indicate that a more substantial recovery is anticipated in 2026, with CLSA forecasting 10.2 percent growth to MOP254.3 billion ($31.7 billion).
‘While we think growth in 2025 will be minimal, this should accelerate in 2026 based on our property team’s view that Chinese property prices will gradually bottom out in 2H25, which we see as a key driver for consumer confidence in China,’ notes the CLSA report.
The sluggish outlook for 2025 is attributed to escalating trade tensions that continue to dampen consumer confidence in China, alongside weakening of the renminbi.
Macau visitor arrivals are projected to reach 35.8 million in 2025, representing 91 percent of pre-pandemic 2019 levels. The firm expects visitation to grow by 2.6 percent year-on-year in both 2025 and 2026, followed by 4.6 percent growth in 2027. Despite this recovery trajectory, visitor numbers are expected to remain 2 percent below 2019 figures even by 2027.
First quarter performance in 2025 showed a divergence between visitation and spending patterns. While Macau recorded a modest 0.6 percent year-over-year GGR growth, visitor numbers increased by 10 percent to 6.7 million in the first two months, reaching 97 percent of pre-pandemic levels.
Analysts highlight that casino operators are facing profitability challenges despite the slight revenue growth. Macau gaming concessionaires are projected to see a 6 percent decline in sector EBITDA to $1.89 billion in the first quarter, attributed to compressed margins.
The quarterly GGR of MOP57.66 billion ($7.2 billion) represents a significant slowdown from the 6.1 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024. CLSA attributes this deceleration to a ‘bottleneck against a higher base for year-over-year comparison,’ with first quarter revenue reaching only 76 percent of corresponding 2019 levels.
