JP Morgan has significantly revised down its October gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau following a lackluster Golden Week performance, with analysts now projecting growth of just 3-6 percent year-on-year compared to their previous estimate of over 11 percent.
The downgrade comes after Golden Week data revealed a 5 percent yearly decline in gaming revenue, prompting the investment bank to lower its fourth-quarter 2025 forecast to 9 percent growth from a previous projection of 13 percent.
In a research note released on October 14th, 2025, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian stated the bank is ‘erring on the side of caution’ given the weaker-than-expected start to the quarter.
‘The quarter didn’t start with a bang—Golden Week numbers were not so golden, down 5 percent YoY,’ the report noted, though analysts emphasized this should be viewed as ‘a temporary setback’ rather than a fundamental deterioration in Macau’s gaming sector.
Multiple factors behind underperformance
JP Morgan identified several contributing factors to the Golden Week disappointment. Typhoon disruptions on October 5th directly impacted gaming operations, while the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival gathering on October 6th—typically observed in September—may have affected mass market participation.
Additionally, the Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix, held October 3rd-5th instead of its usual September slot, likely diverted high-end gaming customers away from Macau.
The bank acknowledged inherent uncertainties in industry data collection, noting ‘with the usual noise & margin of error in consultant checks, we don’t view the Golden Week data as a conclusive red flag for fundamentals.’
Earnings season outlook dampened
Looking ahead to the third-quarter earnings season extending through November, JP Morgan projected ‘uninspiring’ results across Macau’s six licensed operators. The firm estimates industry EBITDA rose 7-8 percent year-on-year and 1-2 percent quarter-on-quarter in 3Q25, with margins holding steady despite an estimated 3 percent impact from casino shutdowns due to September’s super typhoon.
Despite the near-term headwinds, JP Morgan maintained its overweight ratings on Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China, Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Melco Resorts. The bank emphasized that ‘easy comps kick in from December,’ which should drive industry GGR acceleration to mid-teens growth in December and low teens in 1Q26.
‘The sector warrants further monitoring in the coming weeks before calling a trend,’ the report concluded, suggesting investors exercise patience until demand growth accelerates to double-digits, likely from December into 1Q26.
