Macau’s post-Golden Week slowdown shows 44% drop to $71.8M daily revenue

Gaming revenue in Macau has experienced a sharper post-holiday decline than historically observed, with a 44 percent week-on-week drop following May’s Golden Week, according to a recent investment report from HSBC.

Macau recorded gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP8.55 billion ($1.06 billion) in the first 11 days of May, but showed significant softening after the holiday period ended, according to analysts.

HSBC analysts Charlene Liu, Jessie Lu and Lauren Cai reported that the average daily revenue (ADR) in the six days following Golden Week decreased 44 percent week-on-week to MOP575 million ($71.8 million) per day, representing a one percent year-on-year decline despite improved VIP win rates.

‘Though VIP win rate improved to 3.5-3.7 percent from 3.3-3.5 percent the week before, the sequential slowdown was sharper than historical seasonality, partly because demand was front-loaded,’ the HSBC team noted in their report.

The analysts pointed out that typical run rates in the second week of May would historically drop 25-35 percent versus the first week, making this year’s 44 percent decline more pronounced.

However, HSBC also highlighted that the month-to-date run rate remains 24 percent above April’s level, which still exceeds historical trends – where the first two weeks of May typically show only a 10 percent average increase compared to April.

Breaking down the segments, HSBC reported mass ADR was up 22-24 percent month-on-month (compared to 60-65 percent the week before), while VIP volume increased 21-24 percent month-on-month (versus 55-58 percent the previous week).

Looking ahead, HSBC forecasts May GGR could see 0-5 percent year-on-year growth, noting, ‘Recent measures announced by China and the US ease tariff tensions and may help improve consumer sentiment to some extent, in our view.’

It is important to note that amid the slow spending environment, the May Golden Week scored surprisingly good results. 

According to a previous report from JP Morgan, Macau’s GGR for the first five days of May was MOP5.1 billion ($637 million) or MOP1.02 billion ($127 million) per day. This represents a strong 12 percent year-on-year growth, despite facing a tough comparison base, and 90 percent plus of pre-COVID May Golden Week despite the demise of VIP. ‘This is especially encouraging as it contrasts with the meaningful approximately 10 percent miss in GGR during the most recent Golden Week.’

On May 8th, Galaxy Entertainment Chairman Francis Lui stated after a shareholders meeting that this year’s May Golden Week saw a record number of visitors to Macau, and the group’s business volume also had double-digit growth year-on-year, so he was satisfied with this performance.

During the five-day Labor Day holiday, Macau received a total of 850,034 visitor arrivals, averaging slightly more than 170,000 visitors each day. This represents an approximate 33 percent increase compared to the 604,395 visitor arrivals recorded during the previous year’s May Day Golden Week.