JP Morgan has presented a positive outlook for Macau’s gaming revenue by the end of the year, estimating that the gross gaming revenue (GGR) in December will reach MOP 17 billion ($2.1 billion).
According to the latest investment memo, the investment bank notes that the projection translates to a daily run-rate of around MOP 550 million ($68.4 million) with a full recovery of the mass market.
Analysts from JP Morgan indicate that this could result in 8 percent quarter-on-quarter growth in 4Q23 GGR, with mass showing ‘slightly stronger’ growth at 9 percent quarter-on-quarter.
Consequently, industry EBITDA is expected to grow by 8 to 10 percent quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the historical seasonality of 5 percent growth quarter-on-quarter before COVID-19.
In December, the Macau government launched a series of iconic events which will last until January of the following year.
According to the same note, JP Morgan also indicates Macau’s GGR experienced ‘some softness’ in the first 10 days of December, primarily attributed to poor luck, particularly in the VIP segment.
The estimated daily run-rate for GGR during this period was MOP 520 million ($64.7 million), compared to MOP 535 million ($68.8 million) in November. The lower performance was partly due to a less favorable VIP luck factor.
Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance, Lei Wai Nong, expressed confidence that the city is poised to host around 28 million visitor arrivals by the end of this year, following a successful reception of over 25 million tourists in the first 11 months of 2023.
The Macau gaming industry had a rapid recovery since all travel restrictions were removed in January this year. For the eleven months leading up to November 30th, Macau’s casino GGR reached MOP 164.5 billion ($20.4 billion), indicating a 325 percent surge compared to the same period the previous year.
