Macau’s premium mass thrives while base mass shows signs of strain: Citigroup 

Macau’s gaming landscape appears to be telling a tale of two segments, according to a recent Citigroup table survey.

While the premium mass sector demonstrates robust growth, the base mass market is showing signs of sluggishness, highlighting a potential divergence in the fortunes of these key components of Macau’s gaming industry.

The Citigroup survey, conducted by analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau, affirms a continued expansion of the premium mass segment.

The monthly table survey notes that the total wager in this segment rose to HK$11.4 million ($1.46 million), a 13 percent increase compared to HK$10.0 million ($1.28 million) in March 2024. This growth is primarily attributed to a significant rise in player numbers. ‘The number of premium mass players seen amounted to 645, 34 percent higher vs. Mar-24,’ the survey states.

However, the analysts point out an interesting nuance within the premium mass data. While the number of players increased substantially, the average wager per player decreased. ‘The lower average wager per player from our latest survey likely indicates that not all of the new incremental players are whales,’ Choi and Chau explain.

Despite this dilution of the average wager, the overall trend remains positive. ‘More importantly,’ they add, ‘the higher number of premium mass players more than offset the lower average wager, translating into higher total wager (+13 percent YoY in our survey).’ This indicates that the influx of new premium mass players is driving growth, even if not all are high-rollers.

In stark contrast to the premium mass segment, the base mass market appears to be facing headwinds. The Citigroup survey reveals a concerning trend: ‘The 9 percent YoY lower average minimum bet suggests that spending power among base mass players has declined.’ This decline in average minimum bet points to a potential decrease in the spending capacity of more budget-conscious gamblers, a segment that has traditionally been a cornerstone of Macau’s gaming revenue.

The survey also provides an update on the adoption of smart table technology in Macau’s casinos, a trend that is transforming operations and data collection.

According to the findings, ‘City of Dreams has become 100 percent smart in its mass baccarat operations, making Melco the fifth operator with full smart table deployment.’ 

Furthermore, the analysts observed ‘smart tables throughout the entire mass floors at Grand Lisboa,’ indicating a wider implementation of this technology across different casino operators. This increasing adoption of smart tables signals a move toward greater efficiency and enhanced data analytics within the Macau gaming sector.

Choi and Chau, in their analysis, emphasize the divergence between these two segments. While the premium mass segment is characterized by growth and an expanding player base, the base mass market is grappling with declining spending power. This disparity raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the base mass segment and the potential need for casinos to adapt their strategies.

Despite these mixed signals, the analysts are maintaining a cautious outlook. Citigroup has kept its March GGR forecast unchanged at MOP19.5 billion ($2.42 billion), which is flat compared to the same month last year. The projection suggests a period of stability despite the contrasting performance of the premium mass and base mass segments.